The year 2000 computer problem raises the question of whether
universities will be operating in the year 2000. The problem arises
because in the early days of computing, storage space, both on punch cards
and in memory, was scarce and expensive. Consequently programmers
frequently shortened years such as 1965 to 65. They knew that the
programs they were writing would not function properly in the year 2000,
but they believed that their programs would be replaced, rather like a car
or the roof of a house, long before the year 2000 arrived. This has not
happened. Instead, programs have become larger and more complex. Large
organizations are now using programs consisting of millions of lines of
code. Frequently the documentation is missing, and the people who wrote
the programs have long ago left the company. Given a choice between
replacing a software system or modifying the existing system, the less
expensive choice of modifying the existing system was frequently made. There
is now very little time remaining to repair these programs. Among
those working on the problem, the rule of thumb is that large
organizations which were not engaged in code renovation by October 1997
will not be ready in time.

The problem is not limited to software. Hardware, specifically
embedded chips, are also at risk. Currently only 10 to 15 percent of
chips go into computers and calculators. The rest go into automatic
control devices such the chip that controls the air-fuel mixture in an
automobile. Most of these chips are not date-sensitive, but a few are.
Date-sensitive chips are used for metering, maintenance, and scheduling.
Examples of metering include measuring the flow of electric power, natural
gas, or water. Examples of maintenance are elevators or manufacturing
equipment. If the equipment calculates that it has not been serviced
within a specified period of time, it may cease to function. Examples of
scheduling are traffic lights and heating systems that operate differently
on weekdays and weekends.

Repairing embedded chips requires listing devices which may
contain chips, contacting manufacturers to determine whether there is a
date problem, and ordering and installing replacement parts. This takes
time. A further complication is that some of these chips are located
underground in pipelines, under the ocean in cables, in satellites, or on
ships at sea.

Universities need to be concerned not only about their own
equipment, but also their suppliers. Critical supplies include not only
books, paper, office equipment and food, but also electricity, gas, water,
telephones, and the banking system. Given the risks posed by the year
2000 computer problem, there are several factors that could cause
universities to be closed in the spring of 2000.

1. The university's own internal operations -- registration,
accounts payable and accounts receivable, payroll, heating systems, etc.
-- may not be functioning.
2. Due to the failure of embedded chips, the flow of natural gas
might be disrupted. If gas supplies are limited, it would likely be
rationed. Universities would probably not be considered as essential as
hospitals, residences, key government and business services, etc.
3. If the water distribution system malfunctions, university
plumbing systems will not work.
4. Electric power plants contain many embedded chips. Nuclear
plants have many control systems. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)
has the responsibility to guarantee safety, not to produce power. The NRC
might decide to close plants that cannot prove that they are year 2000
compliant. If all nuclear plants are closed, the U.S. would lose 20
percent of its electric power generating capacity, 40 percent on the East
Coast. If electric power is rationed, universities may be closed.
5. There are concerns that the banking system may not be ready
in time. If students are not able to pay tuition, universities will not
be able to pay faculty and staff.
6. Current reports indicate that quite a few government
computers will not be repaired in time. If the government cannot send out
checks for social security, welfare, medicare, etc., there may be civil
disorders. Some universities located in urban areas may decide to close
for security reasons.

Most experts in the field expect significant disruption. No
one knows how bad it will be. Given these risks to normal university
operation in the year 2000, there are several things that universities can
do to help prepare their communities:

1. Create a year 2000 planning group in each major unit of the
university.
2. Conduct a lecture series on the year 2000 computer problem to
familiarize people with the issue.
3. Begin holding participatory planning meetings with
representatives of local organizations so that if some basic services
fail, people are not caught unprepared.
4. Encourage students to do research and write reports on the
issue. It is a multi-disciplinary problem that presents an unusual
opportunity for students to come to understand how a complex,
interdependent society operates.

There is a great deal of information about the issue available via
the world wide web. The key website is www.year2000.com. At that site
one can find a list of books on the subject. Most of them can be ordered
through www.amazon.com. From the year 2000 website one can join a
listserve on the subject, receive a 70 page FAQ (frequently asked
questions) in which technical people explain why the problem is difficult
to solve, and link to many other government and industry websites. Perhaps
the most useful section of the year2000.com website is the links to
current articles. By reading these articles one can keep track of how the
subject is being discussed in many publications from several countries.