Sept. 8, 2004

Presidential Candidates Playing to a Polarized Electorate

GW-Battleground 2004 Poll Finds Little Uncertainty Among Likely Voters

By Thomas Kohout

Heading into the Republican National Convention, The George Washington University Battleground 2004 Poll released its latest presidential campaign polling data Aug. 26, revealing an intensely divided electorate with little change from the June and April results. According to the bipartisan election survey conducted by top polling firms Lake Snell Perry and Associates and The Tarrance Group, Sen. John Kerry (D–MA) leads President George Bush 49 percent to 47 percent, and 84 percent of likely voters have already made a definite choice for president.

“The major thing you see in the data is that the race is extremely polarized,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, president of Lake Snell Perry and Associates.
“This is the first time a campaign can be won or lost in the field, not on the air.”

Lake also noted that in previous Battleground polls Democratic voters were less energized than their Republican counterparts. “Now we see that both groups are equally energized. And for the first time, following the Democratic convention, we see Kerry topping the unaided poll —where those polled volunteer which candidate they will vote for rather than being prompted to choose between Kerry and Bush or Kerry, Bush and Nader.”

According to Republican strategist Ed Goeas, president of The Tarrance Group, so far most events in the campaign have offered little more than reinforcement for those who have already made up their minds.

“In fairness to the Kerry campaign,” said Goeas, “his lack of any bounce coming out of the Democratic Convention is not too much of a surprise, even in relation to historic measurements, because the electorate is so polarized. ”

Responses from the recent survey, conducted Aug. 15–17, show 54 percent of voters believe the country is on the wrong track with Kerry leading Bush 50 percent to 46 percent on the question “Who will lead our country in the right direction.”

The President still holds an advantage on issues such as “Dealing with Iraq” (Bush 53 percent, Kerry 41 percent), “Holding the Line on Taxes” (Bush 54 percent, Kerry 37 percent) and “Safeguarding America from a Terrorist Threat” (Bush 53 percent, Kerry 41 percent).

The GW-Battleground Poll surveyed 1,000 registered likely voters nationwide and reports a ±3 percent margin of error. Initiated in June 1991, the Battleground polls have gained widespread media recognition as reliable bellwethers of national opinion and voters’ intentions. The Battleground data projected the outcome of the 1992 presidential race more precisely than any other similar effort in the country, including those of the major TV networks and national newspapers. In addition, Battleground polls have consistently been major predictors of what is going to happen in approaching Congressional elections.

“One thing I would point out,” said Goeas, “is that all of the results are within the margin of error. There is nothing in this data that you can make a prediction with.”
The GW-Battleground Poll is a multi-year sponsorship managed by the Graduate School of Political Managment and archived in Gelman Library. For the latest poll results visit www.GWnewscenter.org.

Send feedback to: bygeorge@gwu.edu

Related Link

GW-Battleground Results