“Echoes” in the Halls of Admission

Feb. 18, 2004

National Trends Point to Increased High School Graduation, College Enrollment

By Greg Licamele

According to a recent study, the number of high school graduates nationwide will continue to rise until 2008; meanwhile, a separate survey predicts that total enrollment at American colleges will increase 19 percent.

The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) predicted the number of high school graduates to peak in 2008–09, with 3.2 million students earning a diploma. In the subsequent years, the report shows slight declines in high school graduations.

Geographically, the Western United States is expected to experience the highest percentage of growth (9 percent), while the South also will see an increase of 5 percent. Rates in the Midwest and Northeast are expected to decline. The report also shows more diverse students graduating from high schools, with the class of 2014 producing about 50 percent White, non-Hispanic students and 50 percent racial/ethnic minorities.

“The data we’ve gathered on the numbers of children, their racial/ethnic backgrounds and their socioeconomic levels should be a wake-up call, urging us to look closely at where we’re doing well and where we need to do much better in terms of retaining and graduating our young people,” said David Longanecker, WICHE executive director. WICHE produced this sixth annual report in December in partnership with The College Board and the ACT.

Kathryn Napper, director of GW admissions, said this report helps colleges plan, but she noted the projections cannot determine if these graduates will attend college.

“We’ve known for a while,” Napper said, “that more students are going to graduate from high school. As a university, we hope these increases will translate into more students going to college.”

In terms of diversity, Napper said GW already has been focused on admitting a wide array of students.

“We’ve seen an increase in students from all ethnic backgrounds applying to the University in recent years,” she said.

The report also detailed which states will experience growth and declines in high school graduates. Texas, Florida, Nevada and Arizona are projected to lead the pack, places from whence GW already has received more applications, Napper said. The University set a milestone two weeks ago when it opened its 20,000th application (See related story).

Meanwhile, eight states and the District of Columbia are projected to graduate fewer high school students in the coming years.

“The District of Columbia is one area of particular concern for us since we are situated in the nation’s capital,” Napper said. “We’ve already seen fewer high school graduates, therefore, fewer potentially going on to college. This is something we don’t want to have happen.”

The US Department of Education produced a recent report predicting total enrollment at colleges will blossom to 18.2 million students between 2000 and 2013, a 19 percent rise. Contributing to this increase is the large number of students ages 18-24, sometimes called the “baby boom echo.”

Send feedback to: bygeorge@gwu.edu

GW Applications: 20,000 and Counting