Identifying the “Influentials” Among the Online Citizenry

Feb. 18, 2004

By Thomas Kohout

GW’s Institute for Politics, Democracy and the Internet (IPDI) announced the discovery of a small but persuasive subcultural group of opinion leaders and political activists, “Online Political Citizens,” who are profoundly changing the way political information is disseminated.

The study, “Political Influentials Online in the 2004 Presidential Campaign,” co-authored by Carol Darr, director of IPDI and associate research professor in the Graduate School of Political Management, and Joseph Graf, project director at IPDI and adjunct professor in the School of Media and Public Affairs, suggests that this new community is changing the 2004 presidential campaign landscape and promises to forever alter the way in which matters ranging from political opinion to entertainment and style are determined.

The research was based on a premise outlined in the book “The Influentials” by RoperASW executives Ed Keller and Jon Berry, identifying a segment of the population as opinion leaders and trend setters who “tell their neighbors what to buy, which politicians to support and where to vacation.” Keller and Berry found that normally only 10 percent of Americans fit the select criteria to qualify as “Influentials” such as involvement in community civic and political activities; maintaining strong ties to large networks of friends, relatives and colleagues; and actively seeking out information on a wide range of subjects and eagerly passing along their opinions on these subjects.

According to Darr, OPCs appeared strikingly similar to Influentials in the level of persuasion they wield. What they found was that 69 percent of OPCs qualify as Influentials, seven times the rate of average citizens, meaning OPCs are “disproportionately likely to exert a ‘multiplier effect’ ” persuading the public at large.

Darr and Graf determined that roughly 7 percent of the population are OPCs and they are more likely to be younger, single white males who are politically active via the Internet, twice as likely to have a college degree and earn a higher salary, and contribute to political campaigns.

“Online Political Citizens are influential Americans who most political organizations have either overlooked or misunderstood,” said Darr. “This group has already made a huge impact on the 2004 presidential campaign and OPCs foreshadow a radical change in the nature of American politics.”

Darr and Graf uncovered a misconception about who makes up this online community. They insist the media has portrayed OPCs as isolated cyber-geeks, out of step with mainstream society.

“The results of the political influentials online report shatter that stereotype and reframe online political citizens as a group that deserves the attention of the media and the political mainstream,” said Graf.

“These are not the sad, the mad and the lonely,” added Darr.

A pdf copy of the study “Political Influentials Online in the 2004 Presidential Campaign” is available at www.ipdi.org/Influentials/Influentials.htm.

The data for political influentials online were provided by Nielsen//NetRatings and RoperASW through more than 2,400 individual online and telephone surveys of Americans. Individuals who visited online political and news sites were included in the 1,392 surveyed by Nielsen//NetRatings.

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