Ginger Smith, Ph.D., is Visiting Associate Professor for Tourism Studies, Department of Tourism & Hospitality Management, School of Business and Public Management, The George Washington University, Washington, DC., condado@juno.com.

Stuart Umpleby, Ph.D., is Professor, Research Program in Social and Organization Learning, School of Business and Public Management, The George Washington University, Washington, DC., umpleby@gwu.edu.

Alex Kobina Armoo is a Masters of Philosophy candidate (Tourism & Recreation)  of  the University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana.  He is presently a Visiting Research Scholar of the International Institute of Tourism Studies, The George Washington University, Washington, DC. , kobinaarmoo@netzero.net.

INTRODUCTION
January 1, 2000, will not only usher in the 21st century and the 3rd millennium but  also the Year 2000 computer crisis.  The Year 2000 problem, popularly referred to as Y2K, has been described as a “worldwide crisis” (U.S. Senate, 1999).   The cost of locating and correcting the faulty computer code is astronomically high.  Early estimates, by the Gartner Group, for the entire world were between $300 and $600 billion (Alexander, 1999) and budgets have been rising.  Paradoxically, what began as a technological cost saving measure has become the largest technical project in human history and a global social crisis.

The Y2K issue will manifest itself before, on, and after January 1, 2000, and its effects on travel and tourism may range from inconsequential errors to temporary declines or, at worst, demise of international travel and tourism.   All sectors could be affected – hospitality, transportation, attractions, and financial and social services in both developed and developing countries.

HOW THE TOURISM INDUSTRY MAY BE AFFECTED
In a world in which almost everything from telecommunication through air traffic control to financial transactions is technologically dependent, computer malfunctions can have far-reaching implications.  Malfunctions may occur in many types of equipment found in homes, schools, offices, hospitals, manufacturing plants, hotels, attractions, theme parks, etc.  Tourism may be affected by failure of equipment in the industry, failure of urban utilities, or civil disorders and political instability.

Technical Implications
Y2K will affect both computer software and hardware and date-sensitive embedded systems.  Throughout the world there are billions of pieces of equipment that use microprocessor chips.  Of the chips that are manufactured, only ten to fifteen percent go into computers or calculators.  The rest go into embedded systems (automatic control equipment).  Some embedded systems are not date-sensitive (e.g., chips that control the air-fuel mixture and the anti-lock braking systems in automobiles).  Among the most important date-sensitive embedded systems are the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems located in water, electricity, and natural gas networks.  If unrepaired, embedded chip problems in SCADA systems could result in the inability of utilities to supply customers.  In the US alone, failures in the power supply industry (comprised of 3,200  electric utilities)  could devastate businesses, municipalities, and homes (Umpleby, 1999a).  Developing countries like Togo, Benin, Burkina Faso and Niger rely on electricity supplied by neighboring countries like Ghana, La Cote d’Ivoire, and Nigeria.  Any problems in power generating facilities will have economic repercussions not only in Ghana, La Cote d’Ivoire, and Nigeria but also in neighboring countries that rely on their electric power.  Businesses and government agencies may be shut down, sending ripples throughout the various economies.

The US Senate Report (1999) suggests that 20 to 30 million people in the United States may be without water.  Other predictions (Vaas, 1999) indicate that telephones systems may fail, some areas will experience power blackouts, petroleum will be in short supply, and some people may experience life threatening situations due to cold, hunger, and possibly civil disorder.   The world trading system is vulnerable to disruptions in communications, banking and shipping.  Ships, for example, can have as many as 100-200 embedded systems that control everything from navigation to refrigeration.  In 1998, the U.S. Coast Guard surveyed marine manufacturers and discovered that over 20% of the embedded systems tested were not Y2K compliant.  Computer programs for engine automation systems that monitor the time between required engine maintenance are a good example of the Y2K problem.  If these programs misread “00” as the year 1900 instead of 2000, they may conclude that 100 years have elapsed since the last engine maintenance was performed and respond by shutting down systems to avert engine damage (U.S. Department of Commerce, 1999).

Many airports throughout the world, particularly those in developing countries, are not presently compliant.  According to Gabriel Wolfe, the International Air Transport Authority’s (IATA) Coordinator of Africa’s Y2K project, apart from the Cairo airport, there is inadequate information on the readiness for the Year 2000 of the rest of Africa’s airports (www.ghanaclassifieds.com.Newa/Africa/afr333.html).  Due to this lack of information, some large airlines have decided not to fly to airports that are not known to be Y2K compliant.  Developing countries could follow the example of Latin American countries, where air traffic controllers are being given refresher courses on guiding planes without the help of computers, so air traffic can be controlled should crisis situations occur (Vaas,1999).  This is one of many measures that can create confidence in airports.  Presently, reports from Europe indicate that most flights from Europe to the US, scheduled for the end of the year, are already booked to capacity.  Delays in airline schedules, due to Y2K, weather or other reasons, may cause significant numbers of passengers to become stranded and frustrated.

Economic Implications
In today’s global economy, most manufacturing firms depend on complex material supply and product distribution links in order to survive.  Like an intricate web, organizations have multiple suppliers and clients who, in turn,  are  connected to others down the line.  Non-compliance in one organization will have an effect on others, beginning with its suppliers and clients.  If a few parts are not available, a firm’s assembly lines could be affected. To understand possible economic disruptions, consider the fact that a major manufacturing firm such a General Motors (GM) has thousands of suppliers.  Each of the companies supplying parts or services to GM also has suppliers.  And those suppliers in turn have suppliers.  Suppose that GM is completely year-2000 compliant and the majority of its suppliers are as well,  but, for whatever reason, GM cannot obtain 5% of the parts needed to build automobiles.  What will GM do once inventories are depleted?  They will have to stop building cars and lay off workers (Umpleby, 1999b).  And all of the compliant companies shipping parts to GM will lose an important customer.   Unemployment would increase.

Political Implications
Government agencies and services may be affected.  In October 1997, the Canadian Auditor General issued a report saying that unless the pace of repairs was dramatically increased, the Canadian government would not be able to collect taxes or make payments in January, 2000.  In the United States, state and local governments are behind the national governments in preparation, and so will be the most affected (US Senate, 1999).  In a developing country like Ghana, where the government is the largest employer, any computer malfunction at the Accountant General’s Department, or down the line of its suppliers, will prevent monthly salaries from being paid.  Heightened levels of frustration and fear could lead to civil unrest, volatile social and economic conditions, and support for anti-government and extremist groups.

In many countries, the government is not acting and is ignoring the need for public discussion of the Y2K issue.  Part of the problem are lack of funds for Y2K repairs and government concerns that public attention on the issue may trigger panic among citizens, causing more potential disruptions than the Y2K problem itself; however, if governments do not alert citizens to the need to act, fewer repairs will be made and the people will be less prepared for disruptions.

Sociocultural Implications
The potential sociocultural implications of Y2K have a number of precedents.  Major power outages can catastrophic effects.  In 1992, nine of Malaysia’s 13 states experienced a 13-hour power outage in which 30 million people were affected and businesses lost US$58 million (Leslie, 1999).   In January, 1998, four electric trunk lines supplying power to downtown Auckland, New Zealand, went down like dominos closing the Auckland greater downtown business district for three months.  With water supply, elevators, telephones, and air-conditioning disabled in Auckland’s modern, state-of-the-art high rise office buildings, all conduct of business ceased.   Without traffic lights, the city streets became gridlocked, blocking emergency vehicle response and access.  Over time the sealed buildings themselves became toxic through lack of ventilation and accumulation of uncleared human and hazardous wastes.  Both residents and business owners evacuated the city, carrying their essential personal effects and office furniture, computers, file cabinets, etc., by hand down hundreds of flights of stairs for transport to temporary emergency quarters in hotels outside of the affected areas.   When power was first restored after three months, the initial demand surge was so great that it caused the power to fail again.  It took six months to fully restore the power to Auckland (Farrar 1999).  In the U.S. in 1998-99, human switch errors, power grid upgrade failures, and Y2K compliance testing errors have caused serious power grid failures in San Francisco and Chicago and a major sewage discharge into a public park in Van Nuys, CA.
At the present time, people have faith in technology, progress, and government programs.  If technology disrupts the current standard of living, if companies go bankrupt, and if governments are unable to provide services, people may become disenchanted.  The basic beliefs underlying technological societies could be challenged.

Y2K Compliance and Tourism in Developed and Developing Countries
Some developed countries are way ahead of developing economies in correcting their Y2K problems.  Developed countries, such as the US, Canada, UK, Australia, Israel, and the Netherlands, have many highly skilled technicians and the funds to repair their computers and systems.  Some have also hired programmers from other countries to assist in making repairs.  In these countries, 15% of companies are expected to have at least one mission-critical system failure.  Despite huge expenditures by many developed countries, some could still experience disruptions because another country lagged behind in preparedness.  For example, if Venezuela (a key supplier of petroleum to the US) experiences petroleum production disruptions, the impact will be felt in the United States.

The Gartner Group, in the Gartner Source Documents on Year 2000, has estimated that in a number of countries around the world, 50% or more of the companies in the country will have at least one mission-critical system failure.  These countries include Russia, China, India, Indonesia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Venezuela, and Argentina (gartner5.gartnerweb.com/public/static/aaboutgg/press-rel/testimony1098.html).
Though disruptions from Y2K could hit developing countries the hardest, their problems have been overlooked because of the impression that they are not highly dependent on computers.  For example, Hellweg (1999) posits that the saving grace for most developing countries is that they entered the advanced technology arena late, and, therefore, they do not have as much vulnerable equipment as do developed countries;  however, many service organizations and industries, such as hospitals, tourism facilities, etc., in developing countries do have computers and embedded systems, some of which are vulnerable.  It is “impossible to find all the problems in any system, let alone in ones being used long beyond their useful life span” (Ullman, 1999).  Therein lies the major problem for developing countries regarding the Y2K problem.  Older computers and equipment need repair and replacement parts which, in many cases, may no longer be in production.

On January 26, 1999, a World Bank News Release indicated that many developing countries were unprepared for the risks to national life by Y2K.  It reported that only 55 (39.5%) of 139 developing countries had at least a Y2K coordinator and action plan; however, since this survey, several countries have initiated steps toward becoming Y2K compliant thus increasing the percentage to about 67% (Bond, 1999).  The overwhelming costs of Y2K repairs have led many developing country leaders to adopt a ‘”wait-and-see” policy.

In recent years the tourism industry in many developing countries has moved from the sidelines to the center stage of socio-economic strategies and is emerging as a key component of a non-traditional export sector with strong potential for foreign exchange earnings and employment.  Countries like Ghana, Austria, Zimbabwe, etc., have taken advantage of the potential of tourism and have made investments that have led to increased revenue over the past few years; for Ghana, US$284 million in 1998 up from $US 19.5 million in 1985 (Ministry of Tourism, Ghana, 1998; Akyeampong, 1997).   Interruptions to the tourism industry, caused by Y2K-linked failures in services and utilities, could have a strongly negative effect on economies of developing countries.  Discretionary income is a prerequisite for leisure activities and tourism.  Many tourists to developing countries in Africa and the Caribbean are from developed countries.  If unemployment or a reduction in earnings affects workers of more developed countries, travel could be greatly reduced in lesser developed countries.  Revenue from airport taxes, value added taxes (VAT), and other service taxes would diminish.   As a result, the incomes in tourism-dependent communities (e.g., Cape Coast and Elmina, Ghana; Kingston, Jamaica, etc.) may fall.

Additionally, in many developing countries, the hotel accommodations are targeted mainly at the international tourist.  Few citizens of developing countries patronize hotels and motels for reasons ranging from financial cost to cultural perceptions regarding the use of hotels.  If international tourism is drastically reduced, the hotel sector in developing countries, dependent on inbound international tourism, may be seriously hurt.   During the 1970s and 1980s, when Ghana was under military rule and international tourism was drastically reduced, almost all of the state-owned hotels and tourism-related establishments had reduced business and revenue.   By the 1990s, most of the hotels had gone bankrupt and were, consequently, sold or put on the government’s divestiture list of state-owned organizations to be sold.  Should international tourism drop, due to Y2K-related problems, the accommodations sectors in developing countries could be severely affected.

Many tourism organizations in developing countries are dependent on third party organizations overseas (travel agents, tour operators, international hotel reservation systems, suppliers, public sector entities).   Y2K-related failures in third party systems would have a direct impact on the operations of the developing country tourism organizations, resulting in disincentives to foreign investment and reduced business activity and business and leisure travel.

HOW THE TOURISM INDUSTRY CAN HELP
The sheer economic size, technological interdependence, and global distribution of the tourism industry can help mitigate potential effects of Y2K.  Today, the tourism industry is said to be one of the fastest growing industries in the world.  The Year 2000 problem, however, has the potential of crippling the tourism industry unless the industry itself, through its inherent resilience and flexibility, can unite to forge a concerted Y2K readiness action plan as an alliance among industry members.   For example, the “GO USA!   Travel Moves People” 1991 industry alliance successfully brought together for the first time thousands of US tourism organizations.  The purpose of the alliance was to unite the industry behind a domestic travel promotion program in an effort to overcome low levels of international travel to the US during the Persian Gulf War (Smith , 1991, and Mowlana and Smith, 1992).   A rekindling of this coalition or a similar US tourism industry alliance, that includes international outreach, would be a positive step to offset potentially damaging effects of Y2K on the industry.
The U.S. State Department has issued travel advisories indicating countries with medium to high risk of failure of utility services and/or civil disorders.  Other countries have released travel advisories warning their citizens of possible disruptions in utilities, banking, and health care services, particularly, in developing countries.  For example, the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office has advised British nationals to be aware of possible disruptions to their travel plans due to Y2K.  It states that, “Travelers should consult travel agents and airlines for information about how the potential problems for travel, hotels, food, etc., are being addressed at their planned destination” (www.fco.gov.uk/travel/dynpage.asp?Page=92).   Hence, the travel industry is serving as a source of information about the compliance of cities and countries.  There are several areas in which the industry can be of help in coping with Y2K disruptions.

Hospitality
Throughout the world, examples exist where the hospitality industry has served a crucial role as a place of refuge during periods of crisis -- the loss of power for a number of months in the central business district of Auckland, New Zealand, and the ice storm that crippled Montgomery County, MD, USA in winter 1999, knocking out power to some areas for two weeks.  During that power outage, many  families moved into hotels outside of the affected areas for heat and shelter.   Since the Y2K problem is expected to lead to disruptions during the winter of 2000 in the temperate regions of the world, we can expect that people will move to places where utilities are working.  Hotels are better equipped to serve as refuges than schools or churches.  Hotels have accommodations as well as food and beverage facilities and services.

Reservation systems of hotels could be used to relocate urban dwellers into hotels in more sustainable rural locations.  Urban hotels that are fully prepared may be used to house the families of critical technical workers who may be needed to stay at work after January 1, 2000, fixing equipment and replacing parts.  Rural hotels, on the other hand, could be used as refuges for families of non-technical workers, who would be temporarily unemployed or rendered homeless until basic services are restored.  With the right preparations, hotels would be able to provide well-heated and illuminated shelter facilities.
Restaurants equipped with emergency generators and supplies have also, historically, provided havens during hurricanes, ice storms, etc.  In Old San Juan, Puerto Rico, the owner of the Patio de Sam Restaurant converted the over 100-year-old water cistern under his property into a modern water storage tank, installed generators, and increased freezer space in his property after Hurricane Hugo.   Now during every crisis, his business booms, since his restaurant is one of the few open.  During possible Y2K disruptions, restaurants will be important for people without utilities and, hence, unable to cook at home.  Restaurants should prepare, however, for the possibility of increased business.  Restaurants and airline catering services can support the efforts of hotels and fast food facilities.  In addition, they could help to feed displaced people and others who may be affected by the crisis by sending packaged food to places of refuge with limited or no food production facilities, such as schools and churches.

  Advance preparations by the hospitality industry and its hotels, restaurants, and catering services can include:  (1) adequate supplies of potable water and proper maintenance of sewer facilities;  (2) back-up electricity generators capable of supplying essential facilities and services, such as food preparation apparatus, elevators, and lighting systems; (3) larger than normal supplies of food for a possible influx of guests  attracted to their facilities during the period of the crisis; (4) preparing additional staff,  making it necessary to hire and train temporary workers for the period; (5) disaster supplies such as rolling carts to move heavy objects; extra cash in case credit cards and online financial services fail; locks for bicycles and other property; work gloves; bigger safes; additional security, etc.; (6) adequate health services and supplies for guests that might be in need of medical attention.  Hotels with medical facilities should ask their medical staff to be on hand throughout the potential crisis period; (7) emergency communications equipment such as short-wave radios for managing property and services operations, and (8) entertainment facilities such as videotapes, children’s toys, books, and games made available for guests.

Transportation
The transportation sector could also play a significant role during a potential crisis.  Airlines, for instance, coulc be used to transport relief supplies to persons in affected areas.  It is reassuring that British Airways, for example, has asked that all its senior pilots to be on hand to take to the air at the turn of the millennium.  Cruise ships, hotel van fleets, and passenger transport vans of rental car companies could be used to supplement public transportation of  persons displaced or stranded by the crisis.  Furthermore, they could be used to move urban dwellers to rural locations should major disruptions to city services occur and for return home when the crisis is over and services are restored.  Motor coaches, unused trains, airplanes, and airport facilities could be used as stationary places of refuge, to supplement the facilities provided by schools, churches, and hotels.  Trains and motor coaches could be brought into cities to provide warm sleeping areas.  Cruise lines and military ships could be docked in ports and also used as refuges.  Central reservation and distribution systems (CRS) of airlines and hotels could be made available.  Airline CRSs could be used to place urban dwellers into rural hotels, motels, and private residences.  Travel agencies, in collaboration with Government agencies, could also play a vital role.  Supplies to strategic places could be delivered by the transportation sector.  For example, when Auckland, New Zealand, experienced its power outage,  the electricity company, Mercury Energy, hired the world’s largest airplane (Russian Antonov-124) to transport large generators from Australia to supply limited power (Leslie, 1999).

Entertainment
Much of the travel and tourism industry is based on an appreciation of destinations, natural environments, and cultures different from our own, the experience of special events, and a desire for education, entertainment, and leisure.   During periods of crisis, these characteristics of the tourism industry could be very important in helping people to forget their predicament.  The entertainment industry, should, for example, keep movie theaters open.  Musicians, entertainers, and entertainment centers should provide shows and concerts, if possible, free for the people in Y2K affected areas.

CONCLUSION
The implications of potential Y2K disruptions for international travel and tourism are profound.  Although the amount of disruptions cannot be known in advance, we can be certain that there will be disruptions and, at least in some locations, they may be serious.  Despite the positive roles that the tourism industry can play during a period of potential crisis, a number of questions remain, such as, (1) who pays if urban people are moved into rural areas by the government?  (2)  would hotels be “nationalized” by local, state or federal governments?  (3) to repay the tourism industry for its contribution, would it be possible to set up a barter arrangement, offer tax relief for a period or assured conference bookings?  (4) would insurance companies help hotels reconvert to commercial operation after Y2K?

Tourism is affected by both perceptions and actual disruptions of the economy and society.  The tourism industry can also be a large part of the response to the period of disruption.  Its facilities and services will  be useful in making life easier and more secure for the people who may be affected by the crisis.  Advance planning could be invaluable, , so hotels, restaurants, airlines, cruise ships, etc., need want to start working together to prepare for a joint role they might play.   More staff may have to be hired for the spring of 2000 and prepared for the task.  Both permanent and temporary workers may require training to meet the challenges that may arise.  Supplies, such as water, food, and fuel, may need to be stockpiled.  Indeed, considering the time remaining and the amount of preparation needed, it is apparent that individual tourism organizations and the industry as a whole, in order to play any significant role, should start planning together immediately.

The Y2K crisis could provide public relations opportunities to the travel and tourism industry to take a leadership role as the hospitality service provider that it is.  Depending on the role it plays during the coming period of possible disruptions, the travel and tourism industry may itself become a victim of Y2K technical failures or be viewed as a consummate, global services industry leader capable of providing human solutions in times of social, economic, and political crisis.

 IMPORTANT WEB SITES

Belcher, Alan E.  (1998).  “Y2K – The Way Ahead.”  www.year2000.com/archieve/theway.html.

Huntress, Jon (1998). “Year 2000 National Symposium Series Conference Editorial Coverage.” www.year2000.com/archive/huntress/hchicago5.html

Kappelman, Leon A., Johnson, Jerry L., & Rosmond, Kathy (1997).  “The Role of Government in Solving the Year 2000 Computer Problem.” http://www.year2000.com/archive/government.html

The Gartner Source Documents on Year 2000. http://www.gartner12.gartnerweb.com/static/itjournal/gspecial1.htmeuse.Sci.art.

United Kingdom Action 2000 Website http://www.open.gov.uk/bg2000/whattodo/embsys2.html. March 15, 1999.
World Tourism Organization Official Website (1999).   World Tourism Organization (WTO).
www.world-tourism.org/Offer.htm.  April 18, 1999.

 
REFERENCES
Akyeampong, Oheneba Akwesi (1997).   Tourism and Rural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa:  A Case Study of Ghana's Central Region. Stockholm, Sweden:   Stockholm University.

Alexander, Steve (1999).  “Y2K Problems will linger for 30 months”  Star Tribune. http://www2.startibune.com/stOnline/cg.  April 18, 1999.

Bond, James P. (1999). “The World Bank Group & the Y2K Bug Threat to Developing Countries”. 
www.world bank.org/infodev/y2k/bennettff.htm.

Farrar, Steve (1999).  Spiritual Survival during the Y2k Crisis. Nashville, TN:   Thomas Nelson, Inc.
Foreign & Commonwealth Office, UK (1999).  “Millennium Bug: Advice for Travelers”.   www.fco.gov.uk/travel/dynpage.asp?Page=92.  May 14, 1999.

Hellweg, Eric (1999).   “A Global Guide to Y2K.”   Business 2.0 (January).

Leslie, Jacques (1999).   “Life in the Dark.”   Wired.  7.04 (April)

Ministry of Tourism, Ghana (1998). Tourism Statistics.  Accra:   MOT/UNDP/WTO.

Mowlana, Hamid and Smith, Ginger  (1992).  “Trends in Telecommunications and the Tourism Industry:   Coalitions, Regionalism, and International Welfare Systems” in J.R. Brent Ritchie, Donald Hawkins, Douglas Frechtling, and Frank Go, eds.,  World Travel and Tourism Review:  Indicators, Trends, and Forecasts, vol. 2, no. 1, Wallingford, UK:  C.A.B. International, pp. 163-167.

Smith, Ginger (1991).  Tourism, Telecommunications, and Transnational Banking:  A Study in International Interactions, Doctor Dissertation, American University, Washington, DC, pp. 344-354.

Ullman, Ellen (1999).  “The Myth of Order.”   Wired. 7.04 (April).

Umpleby, Stuart A. (1999a).  “Participation in Organizations and Communities Stimulated By the Year 2000 Computer Crisis.”  Paper presented at the International Conference on Problems of Participation and Connection, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, April 6-9.

Umpleby, Stuart (1999b).  “Y2K:  An ‘Autopsy’ of Modern Society,” Science, Vol. 284, May 21.
U.S. Department of Commerce (1999).  “The Year 2000 Problem and the Global Trading System,” International Trade Administration, Washington, DC, (http://y2k.ita.doc.gov/y2k/y2k.nsf, April 27.

U.S. Senate (1999).  “Investigating the Impact of the Year 2000 Problem”. http://www.senate.gov/~y2k February 24, 1999.
Vaas, Lisa (1999) “Defusing the Y2K Time Bomb” PC Week Online. http://www.zdnet.com/pcweek/stories/news/0,4153,397243,00.html. April; 19, 1999.

Wolfe, Gabriel (1999).   Address delivered at Africa Region Y2K Conference (May 12-14, 1999). www.ghanaclassifieds.com/Newa/Africa/afr335.html, May 14, 1999.