PARTICIPATION IN
ORGANIZATIONS AND COMMUNITIES
STIMULATED BY THE YEAR 2000
COMPUTER CRISIS
By Stuart A. Umpleby
Research Program in Social
and Organizational Learning
The George Washington
University
Washington, DC 20052
Email: umpleby@gwu.edu
URL: http://www.gwu.edu/~umpleby
Prepared for the
International Conference on Problems of Participation and Connection
The World Bank in January, 1999, said “most of the world’s developing countries are woefully unprepared for social and economic disruptions that are expected from computer malfunctions at the turn of the millennium.” The U.S. Senate released a report in February, 1999, calling Y2K a “worldwide crisis” and “one of the most serious and potentially devasting events this nation has ever encountered.” Because there is not now time to fix all affected hardware and software, organizations and communities are currently developing contingency plans to deal with disruptions which are expected to be more widespread and more long-lasting than occur as a result of the usual severe winter storm. Participation is essential since every community and organization from families to the United Nations needs to make preparations. Although the amount of disruptions cannot be known in advance, we can be certain that there will be disruptions and, at least in some locations, they may be serious.
Although the year 2000 computer
crisis is unsettling in that it requires a change in accustomed behavior, for
social scientists interested in action research, it presents a unique
opportunity to test theories and methods.
I suggest that social scientists be asked to predict what they think
will happen and why. These papers could
be presented at a conference in about September 1999. At a second conference in April 2000 we could compare the
predictions with events. Furthermore,
those engaged in efforts to increase awareness and to prepare organizations
could be asked to describe what they did, why they chose the methods they
chose, what they expected to happen, and how their expectations were confirmed
or refuted. This might also be a time
to reflect on the proper role of universities in encouraging the general public
to prepare and to reflect on the experience.
By taking an experimental approach to y2k, we could greatly increase our
understanding of participation and connection.
The paper contains a preliminary set
of predictions drawn from social science theories, a description of actions I
have taken to date, and a report on my expectations both confirmed and refuted.
FACETS
OF THE YEAR 2000 COMPUTER CRISIS
If date-sensitive computer equipment
had been recognized as an important problem ten or more years ago, it would
have remained a technical and management problem. Since it was not fixed in a timely fashion, it is now a social,
economic, and political problem. Let’s
review some of the major features of the problem.
1.
Those
who are managing year 2000 projects are in some cases managing budgets ten
times greater than they are accustomed to managing. They are also managing about ten times as many people as they
usually manage. Many y2k managers are
working with contractors, and some of the contractors have hired programmers in
other countries, such as India and Malaysia.
Hence, there are opportunities for cross-cultural miscommunication. Furthermore, the managers are in most cases
not familiar with the tools being used – tools which create an inventory
of the programs on a machine, tools
which change dates, and tools used to test repaired code. Many of the tools being used are of recent
vintage. Hence, bugs can be expected in
the tools. There are psychological
difficulties as well. The people one
might be tempted to blame for y2k difficulties are the same people one is
counting on to fix the problems. If
people feel they are being blamed for the problems in one organization, they may
leave to go to other organizations where they may very well be offered higher
salaries, since salaries are rising.
However, when people leave, they take knowledge of the local situation
with them.
2.
Embedded
systems were discovered as a y2k problem only fairly recently, about 1997. Originally the y2k problem was assigned to
the IT (information technology) staff, which is in charge of computers but not
production processes or buildings, where most embedded systems are
located. Of the chips that are manufactured,
only ten to fifteen percent go into computers or calculators. The rest go into automatic control
equipment. For example, chips now
control the air-fuel mixture and the anti-lock braking systems in
automobiles. However, these chips are
not date sensitive. Among the most
important embedded systems are the SCADA (supervisory control and data
acquisition) systems which are located in water, electricity, and natural gas
networks. One way to understand the
difference between the IT problem (computers and software) and the embedded
systems problem is to think about an electric utility. If an electric utility does not solve its IT
problem, it will not be able to bill customers or pay employees. If it does not solve its embedded systems
problem, it will not be able to generate electric power.
3.
To
understand possible economic disruptions, consider the case of a large
manufacturing company, such as General Motors, which has thousands of
suppliers. Suppose GM is completely
year 2000 compliant and most of its suppliers are as well. What if GM cannot receive five percent of
the parts it needs to produce automobiles?
It will have to close and lay off workers. And the compliant suppliers shipping parts to GM will also have
to close. I think it is reasonable to
expect a high level of unemployment in the spring of 2000.
4.
Government
services are also threatened. In
October 1997 the Canadian Auditor General issued a report saying that unless
the pace of repairing code was dramatically increased, the Canadian government
would not be able to collect taxes or make payments. In December 1997 the government issued a report saying that their
concerns had increased. In the summer
of 1998 the Royal Canadian Mounted Police and the Canadian military were
instructed to be prepared to assist the civilian population in the event of
widespread disruptions. In the fall of
1998 the Canadian military reported that they were dependent on the same
sources for water, electricity, gas, and petroleum as the civilian population. They added that if there were widespread
civil disorders, they would not have sufficient people to control them. State and local governments are behind
national governments in preparing. Some
have not yet started.
5.
There
may also be changes in culture. At the
present time people have faith in technology, progress, and government
programs. If technical failures disrupt
the current standard of living, if companies go bankrupt, and if governments
are unable to respond, people will be disenchanted and frustrated. The basic beliefs of industrial civilization
will be challenged.
RELEVANT
SOCIAL SCIENCE THEORIES
Psychology
The theory of cognitive dissonance
(Festinger) helps to explain why people have been slow to act on the y2k
threat. Y2k is a threat unlike any we
have experienced before. The closest
parallel might be the use by the Romans of lead pipes for carrying water. Never before has the technology which we
rely upon for a high standard of living threatened to bring about global
social, economic, and political disruption.
Cognitive dissonance will also be a factor after January 2000, for those
people whose forecasts of the future did not come to pass.
Solomon Ash conducted some
experiments on social stress. For
example, in a classroom of students he drew three lines of different lengths on
the board. He told everyone in the
class to say that the line of middle length was the longest. He then brought in a student who had not
been given these instructions. He went
around the class asking which line was the longest. The original students in the class all said that the line of
medium length was the longest, and 70% of the time the naïve student went along
with the group. Only 30% of the time
did the student not in the original group say that his or her classmates were
mistaken. This theory is relevant to
the way that governments are dealing with y2k.
Governments are putting the most optimistic face on y2k status
reports. These reports are diminishing
the credibility of those who are advocating that citizens and communities
prepare. They are also creating doubt
in the minds of activists that preparation and community participation are in
fact needed.
Irving Janis’s (1982) work on
groupthink shows that once an authoritative position has been defined, the
members of an organization are reluctant to speak diverging views. Albert O. Hirschman’s book Exit, Voice, and
Loyalty defines the alternatives that are available to employees whose views
differ from the authoritative view.
Gregory Bateson’s theory of “double bind” can be used to explain the
dilemma of those who feel that y2k will be more serious that official
estimates. If an activist speaks out
against the official line, he or she risks being labeled as crazy or a
troublemaker. If the activist does less
than he thinks is needed, then he is increasing the danger that disruptions
will threaten his family and community.
In addition to academic theories
there have been efforts by y2k activists to characterize the way different
people react to y2k. Sally Strackbein
has suggested that there are “tree people” and “forest people” from the saying,
“Some people cannot see the forest for the trees.” Tree people focus on the details of fixing computer code. Forest people worry about societal
implications. My conversations have led
me to believe that there are three distinct time intervals for which people
choose to prepare. A small group of
people attempts to assess the threat and then chooses to prepare for the
worst. A second group acknowledges the
threat and then decides to prepare for about three days of disruption, since
that is easy to do. Finally, most
people decide to wait and see what happens.
For this last group, y2k may change only the verb tenses: From “that could not happen” to “this cannot
be happening,” to “that could not have happened.” Current conversations suggest that many people will be struggling
to understand y2k even long after it happens.
Management
It is commonly observed in writings
on organizational behavior that good news travels up the chain of command
faster than bad news. A variation on
this phenomenon is that reports tend to become more optimistic as they travel
upward. Many consultants have observed
that y2k assessments become more pessimistic as one goes down in an
organization.
In the field of software engineering
Barry Bain wrote his dissertation on why software development projects are
usually late. Many possible causes were
investigated – organization of the projects, the personality or training of the
manager, funding, planning, etc.
Overwhelmingly the most important factor was when the project
started. That is, projects which start
late, finish late.
Fred Brooks (1995), known as the
“father of the IBM system 360,” wrote a book with the title, The Mythical
Man-Month. In this book he proposed
“Brooks’ Law” – adding people to a software development project delays it. Since the deadline of January 2000 is fixed,
currently the violation of Brooks Law is the nearly universal “solution” to the
year 2000 computer crisis.
The literature on strategic planning
does not easily encompass y2k contingency planning. The strategic planning literature assumes the infrastructure will
work. It assumes that the number of
consumers, suppliers, and competitors will remain approximately the same. Attention is usually focused on maintaining
or increasing market share, not with providing a minimum level of services in
the event of major disruptions.
Political
Science
Political leaders have not done all
they could to warn the public to prepare for y2k disruptions. The most widely cited explanation for this
policy is that public officials fear “public overreaction.” Other explanations are that officials fear a
loss of confidence in the economy, which would mean that less money would be
available for renovation activities.
Another possibility is that political leaders genuinely believe that
there will be little disruption and that most equipment will be fixed in time.
One of the intriguing y2k phenomena is
the wide variety of ways that the official spokes persons “spin” the status
reports. The most common pattern is for
a report containing alarming information to have an optimistic, calming
executive summary. Another government action to shape opinion has been to
shorten the time period for which people are advised to prepare in the event of
a disaster. Until recently U.S.
government agencies have advised citizens to prepare routinely for three days
to two weeks of disruption in case of natural disasters such as floods,
hurricanes, earthquakes or tornadoes.
These websites now recommend preparing only for three days in the event
of y2k disruptions.
One way of dealing with uncertainty
about what will happen is to define a variety of scenarios. Peterson, Wheatley, and Kellner-Rogers
(1998) have used two dimensions to define four possible scenarios. The two dimensions are few failures vs. many
failures and social coherence vs. social collapse. Michael Marien (1999) has defined two additional diagrams. In each diagram one dimension is few failures
vs. many failures. In his first diagram
the second dimension is no other major disturbances vs. some other major
disturbances, such as a worldwide financial crisis. In his second diagram the second dimension is minimal global
preparation vs. coordinated global preparation. Such diagrams help to organize the range of possibilities that
planners need to consider.
Y2k may easily threaten domestic public support for
the political parties currently in power.
Ed Yourdon (1999) has suggested, “y2k community groups represent an
embryonic populist movement that could become the foundation of a major shift
in political power if y2k goes badly.”
Economics
Joseph Tainter’s (1988) book The
Collapse of Complex Societies suggests that as societies become more complex,
additional complexity produces diminishing returns. Eventually the added complexity cannot be sustained and the
society collapses. As a society
collapses, it falls back to a previous stage of development. If there is not support at the previous
stage of development, the society falls back to still earlier stages of
development.
There has been speculation over
whether y2k will produce inflation or deflation. It seems likely that it will produce inflation in essential
goods, and deflation in luxury goods.
The usual positive feedback of economic growth will
be reversed. Rather than increasing
amounts of investment, employment, and consumption, instead we shall most
likely see increasing numbers of business bankruptcies, greater unemployment,
and reduced demand for goods.
Karl Mueller (1998) claims that y2k
is the first really serious crisis of an information society, a crisis that is
global, severe and not transferable in time.
George Soros (1994) maintains that gaps between perception and reality
appear from time to time in both financial markets and political systems. When a gap becomes large, one can predict
that the gap will not continue indefinitely and that perception and reality
will eventually come closer together.
Currently y2k and non-y2k views of the future are far apart. As this gap closes, one would expect the
collapse of financial markets and the collapse of confidence in governments.
Present economic theory assumes a return to equilibrium following a disturbance. When people with an economic background speak about y2k, one hears statements such as the following: “If there is a problem, someone will devise a solution, since there is an economic incentive.” “The managers of corporations are bright people. They will not let their organizations fail.” Contemporary economic theory assumes that there is time to devise a solution to a problem. The “relaxation time” or the time to return to equilibrium or the time to devise a solution has not been an important variable in economic theory. Y2k may increase attention to this variable.
PREDICTIONS
In the U.S. the readiness of the
various economic sectors has been assessed at intervals for over a year by the
U.S. House of Representatives, the U.S. Senate, the General Accounting Office,
and the President’s Council on Y2K Conversion.
The
Small Business Administration has surveyed small businesses, and the Securities
and Exchange Commission has required publicly traded corporations to report on
their progress in achieving year 2000 compliance.
In the US it now appears that
banking, insurance, and financial services are the best prepared, since they
started several years ago. The Senate report implies that about 30 million
people, mostly in urban areas, may be without water. In some areas the telephone system will fail, some areas will
experience electric power blackouts or brownouts, and petroleum will be in
short supply. About 40% of small
businesses have not started and do not intend to work on y2k before systems
fail. Many state and local governments have not yet started. The General Accounting Office has estimated
that about one third of federal government mission critical systems will fail. The Senate report says that the health care
system is particularly poorly prepared.
Internationally the Gartner Group
has surveyed corporations around the world, and the World Bank has surveyed
governments around the world. Italy
started its year 2000 program in January 1999.
Many other governments have not yet started. In many countries in Latin America, Asia, and continental Europe
only the largest companies are working on the problem.
Worldwide it seems possible that
millions of people will die due to the failure of water and sewage systems,
cold, hunger, and civil disorders. As
business activity is restored, there will probably be a massive transfer of
wealth from non-compliant to compliant companies and countries. The number of business and personal
bankruptcies will be huge. Governments will fall, and more radical groups may
come to power. Some nations may break
up into regions, at least temporarily, since communication and transportation
will be greatly encumbered.
There will be humorous events as
well. Currently almost all assessments
are self-assessments. One result is
that the number of “mission critical”
systems is dropping while the percentage of mission critical systems repaired
rises. Ed Yourdon has suggested that
“mission critical” may come to mean, systems which are fixed. Hence, in January 2000 the federal
government may report that all mission critical systems are ready, but the
government is not functioning.
What will the business environment be like in January 2000? A business holiday may be declared to give businesses more time to fix affected equipment. If the phones are working, help desks may be overwhelmed with calls. Errors in orders, reports, and chec