Pavel Makeyenko
Location: Government Hall Rm. 408, (at 21st and G Street, NW)
Time: 1:30 p.m. - 3:00 p.m. January 21, 1995
Abstract
Cultural and psychological stereotypes, historical evolution (or revolutions), and political trends are increasingly recognized as key issues to be considered for the success of reforms in the former centrally planned economies. These dimensions are at least as important as public policies based on neoclassical economics. There is also a growing recognition that rational economic behavior both individual and collective a la Adam Smith's Homo Economicus is just an abstract model having nothing in common with reality especially in turbulent times of transition.
Moreover there are modern concepts applied to history, economics and other fields stressing the role of human beings from one side and based on the other hand on the notion that the participants' perceptions are always at variance with the actual state of affairs. This variance is an important factor in shaping the course of events. It holds the key to understanding history , financial markets, etc.A significant part of modern management theory is based on the assumption that the basic managerial goal is to manage changes but not stability. A state of equilibrium is attractive but hardly achievable goal in this imperfect world, which is becoming more and more turbulent, uncertain, and unpredicatable. It is becomming clear that efforts to deal with economic disequilibrium, which is the essence of thetransition period, using the assumptions of neoclassical economics do not bring desirable results. In the state of disequilibrium economic perceptions of the people and reality are far removed from each other.
Where is a solution? How is it possible to conduct reforms, especially such drastic and large scale reforms, as are taking place in Russia? The method which can be useful to the problem is based on comparative analysis of key subsystems of a society under transition (economy is only one of such subsystems). Comparison should be made both in dynamics and between different societies. To build such comparison the basic questions to be answered are: What are the goals of the transition, the final parameters to be achieved? What were the characteristics of the starting point of the reforms? How can the present state-of-art be evaluated? The descriptions of the parameters of every subsystem - in our case these are economic, political (administrative), cultural, managerial, social and other dimensions of changes are placed in tables and attached to the above mentioned stages. Though these descriptions depend on personal perceptions of those who complied them, they provide a framework for comprehensive and interdisciplinary discussions of reform issues as an initial stage for decision making.
BiographyPavel A. Makeyenko is a professor at the Institute for Systems Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow. He is currently a visiting professor at the GWU Center for Social and Organizational Learning.