July 15, 2009

MILITARY DIPLOMATIC, AND INDUSTRY EXPERTS DISCUSS EAST AFRICAN PIRACY: SOURCES, CHALLENGES, AND POTENTIAL POLICY RESPONSES, AT GW HOMELAND SECURITY POLICY INSTITUTE FORUM

WASHINGTON - The George Washington University Homeland Security Policy Institute (HSPI) held a forum to discuss East African piracy, July 14. The event featured military, diplomatic, and shipping industry experts in a discussion designed to separate fact from hyperbole, assess the true nature of the challenge posed by East African pirates, and illuminate potential policy responses. The forum featured:  Charles Dragonette, Senior Maritime Operations Analyst, Office of Naval Intelligence; Mark Kimmitt, retired Brigadier General and former Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs; Martin Murphy, Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; and David Shinn, former Ambassador to Ethiopia. The discussion was moderated by Frank Cilluffo, Director, Homeland Security Policy Institute; and Stephen Carmel, HSPI Senior Fellow, and Senior Vice President, Maersk Line, Limited.

Mr. Cilluffo opened the event noting that the issue of East African piracy is not "fully recognized for its many moving parts" nor is it something likely to be effectively addressed through an "anti-piracy approach alone." Three specific issues dominated the discussion - Somalia's status as a failed state, the economic costs and magnitude of the threat posed by East African pirates, and the need to better conceptualize and articulate this issue's connection to US national interests.

Each of these issues elicited spirited debate. Ambassador Shinn noted that "the failed state of Somalia is the basic reason you have a problem with piracy." However, General Kimmitt argued, "we can't wait the twenty years it would take to fix Somalia as a country." Concerning the magnitude of the threat, Dr. Murphy posited that the effect on international trade was small stating that "financial charges for ships transiting risk areas are somewhat higher, but compared to the volume of international trade, the losses, and the direct losses to ransom payments, amount to little more than a rounding error." For the panelists, this did not mean the US and the international community should forgo a response. In attempting to devise a policy response, Mr. Carmel stated that the "real question is one of what are our national interests?" He suggested that based on a pure cost-benefit analysis, the U.S. response had thus far been exaggerated - "attacks on the Alabama did not change the facts, simply US perceptions of the problem."

Whether or not linkages exist between Somali-based pirates and Islamist groups, such as al Shabaab, divided the expert panel more than any other topic. Citing an October 2008 study, Ambassador Shinn expressed concern about the potential that linkages already present, such as pirates supplying weapons to Islamists, may increase. The other panelists remained skeptical. For his part, Mr. Cilluffo warned of the need to be mindful of the role played by strategic communications and to watch for the trigger points that might push a nexus between pirates and Islamists.

Audio from this event, as well as an HSPI Issue Brief "East African Piracy", can be found on the HSPI website.

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About the GW Homeland Security Policy Institute, and its Policy & Research Forum series:         
The Homeland Security Policy Institute Policy and Research Forum series is designed to spotlight cutting-edge policy solutions and innovative strategies to some of the most pressing national and international concerns. The forum features leading officials, practitioners and thinkers in a systematic way designed to better highlight their work and promote a dialogue on effective solutions to current issues.

Founded in 2003, The George Washington University Homeland Security Policy Institute (HSPI) is a nonpartisan "think and do" tank whose mission is to build bridges between theory and practice to advance homeland security through an interdisciplinary approach. By convening domestic and international policymakers and practitioners at all levels of government, the private and non-profit sectors, and academia, HSPI creates innovative strategies and solutions to current and future threats to the nation. For additional information about HSPI, please visit http://homelandsecurity.gwu.edu.