INTELLIGENCE AND POLICY

PSC 250LH

Wednesday, 6:10-8:00 PM

(Hall of the States,. Room 383)

 

Professor William M. Wise

billwise@gwu.edu

   Tel: 703-476-7603 (office)

 

The George Washington University

Graduate School of Political Management

Spring 2002

 

 

COURSE DESCRIPTION:

 

            Addressing CIA employees on November 12, 1991, President George H. W. Bush, a former Director of Central Intelligence, observed that “…intelligence remains our basic national instrument for anticipating danger, military, political and economic.   Intelligence is and always will be our first line of defense, enabling us to ward off emerging threats before any damage is done. It can also be a means of anticipating opportunities.”   A decade later, President George W. Bush told a similar audience that he was “struck by the contrast between today’s world and the world as it looked 25 years ago when my dad was the DCI…. But what hasn’t changed… is the fact that sound intelligence is still critically important to America’s national security.”  George W. Bush added that “perhaps most of all, in a world where change is the only constant, we need your help to anticipate change and to shape it in a way that favors freedom.”  Recent events remind us just how vital intelligence is to preventing surprise and formulating and implementing policies to protect our interests and enhance our security. 

 

This course examines, first, the nature of U.S. intelligence, the institutions that form the Intelligence Community, and the process by which intelligence is collected, evaluated, analyzed, and disseminated to policymakers and other consumers.  We next explore the tension between intelligence and policy, looking at how policymakers use intelligence information as well as how Presidents employ the capabilities of intelligence agencies to influence events abroad covertly.  We also focus on how Congress both uses intelligence and exercises oversight of the Intelligence Community. 

 

We will then review the performance of the Intelligence Community during the Cold War and, as George W. Bush suggested, consider how U.S. intelligence can anticipate and adapt to changing threats to American security in the 21st century.  We conclude by evaluating ethical issues in intelligence, including the degree to which the secrecy necessary for intelligence is compatible with the need for openness in our democratic society.

 

 

COURSE REQUIREMENTS:

 

Grading:

 

            Class participation:             30%

            Research paper             25%

            Case study                 45%

 

            Class participation… has three elements: completing the assigned readings, attending classes, and contributing to the discussion.  If you do these simple things each week, you should have no problem in achieving full credit for class participation.

 

            Research paper… is a short paper (not more than five pages) on how a member of the Intelligence Community (CIA, DIA, NSA, NIMA, NRO or FBI) or an interest group concerned about intelligence matters (e.g., AFIO, ACLU, computer software producers, Lockheed Martin Corp.) conducts legislative liaison activities and how effective these efforts are.  The paper will require collecting, organizing and evaluating data from public sources, including the intelligence agencies, interest groups, and the Congress.  Further details will be provided in class.  This paper will be due on March 13, 2002.

 

            Case study… is a longer paper (15-20 pages) analyzing a contemporary defense, foreign policy or international trade issue from the perspectives of the Intelligence Community, the policy community, and the Congress.  The format, topic selection and content of the case study will be discussed in class.  This paper will be due on April 24, 2002.

 

Required texts:

 

            Loch K. Johnson, Bombs, Bugs, Drugs and Thugs: Intelligence and America’s Quest for Security (New York: New York University Press, 2000) [ISBN 0-8147-4252-1]

 

Mark M. Lowenthal, Intelligence -- From Secrets to Policy (Washington: CQ Press, 2000) [ISBN 1-56802-512-2]

 

Report of the Commission on the Roles and Capabilities of the United States Intelligence Community (cited as “Aspin-Brown Commission Report”), March 1, 1996. [www.access.gpo.gov/int/report.html]

 

Recommended texts:

 

            Christopher Andrew, For the President’s Eyes Only: Secret Intelligence and the American Presidency from Washington to Bush (New York: HarperPerennial, 1996) [ISBN 0-06-092178-1]

 

            Gregory F. Treverton, Reshaping National Intelligence in the Age of Information (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001) [ISBN 0-521-58096-X]

 

COURSE SCHEDULE:

 

January 16                   Introduction: What Is Intelligence?

 

Required Reading:

 

            Lowenthal, Ch. 1, “Introduction – What Is Intelligence,” pp. 1-9.

 

January 23                   The U.S. Intelligence Community

 

Required Reading:

 

  1. Lowenthal, Ch. 2, “The Development of the U.S. Intelligence Community,” and Ch. 3, “The U.S. Intelligence Community,” pp. 10-39.
  2. Johnson, Ch. 5, “The DCI and the Eight-Hundred-Pound Gorilla,” and Ch. 6, “Spending for Spies,” pp. 95-149.
  3. Aspin-Brown Commission Report, Appendix A, “The Evolution of the U.S. Intelligence Community,” pp. A-1-25, Appendix B, “An Overview of the Intelligence Community,” pp. B-1-14; Ch. 1, “The Need to Maintain an Intelligence Capability,” Ch. 5, “The Organizational Arrangements for the Intelligence Community,” Ch. 6, “The Central Intelligence Agency.”
  4. Bruce Berkowitz, “Better Ways to Fix Intelligence,” Orbis 45/4 (Fall 2001), pp. 609-619.
  5. Scan the Intelligence Community website: www.odci.gov

 

January 30                   The Intelligence Process (I): Technical Collection Systems

 

Required Reading:

 

  1. Lowenthal, Ch. 4, “The Intelligence Process – A Macro Look: Who Does What for Whom?” and Ch. 5, “The Intelligence Process – Collection and the Collection Disciplines,” pp. 40-74.
  2. Aspin-Brown Commission Report, Ch. 11, “Space Reconnaissance and the Management of Technical Collection,” pp. 117-125.
  3. Matthew M. Aid, “The Time of Troubles: The U.S. National Security Agency in the 21st Century,” Intelligence and National Security, 15/3 (Autumn 2000), pp. 1-32.
  4. John W. Diamond, “Re-examining Problems and Prospects in US Imagery Intelligence,” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 14/1 (Spring 2001), pp. 1-24.
  5. Jeffrey T. Richelson, “MASINT: The New Kid in Town,” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 14/2 (Summer 2001), pp. 149-189.
  6. Scan the websites of technical intelligence agencies:
    1. www.nsa.gov
    2. www.nima.mil
    3. www.nro.odci.gov

 

Recommended Reading:

 

Treverton, Ch. 3, “The Militarization of Intelligence”, pp. 62-92.

 

February 6                   The Intelligence Process (II): Human Source Collection

 

Required Reading:

 

            Edward G. Shirley, “Can’t Anybody Play This Game?” The Atlantic Monthly (February 1998), pp.45-62.

 

Recommended Reading:

 

            Treverton, Ch.5, “Spying, Looking and Catching Criminals,” pp. 136-176.

 

February 13                The Intelligence Process (III): Intelligence Analysis

 

Required Reading:

 

  1. Lowenthal, Ch. 6, “The Intelligence Process – Analysis,” pp. 75-97.
  2. Johnson, Ch. 8, “More Intelligent Intelligence,” pp. 186-198.
  3. Aspin-Brown Commission Report, Ch. 8, “Improving Intelligence Analysis”
  4. Joseph S. Nye, Jr., “Peering into the Future,” Foreign Affairs, 73/4 (July/August 1994), pp. 82-93.

             

February 20                The Intelligence Process (IV): Counterintelligence

 

Required Reading:

 

  1. Lowenthal, Ch. 7, “The Intelligence Process – Counterintelligence,” pp. 98-105.
  2. Johnson, Ch. 8, “More Intelligent Intelligence,” pp. 175-180.
  3. Frederick L. Wettering, “Counterintelligence: The Broken Triad,” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 13/3 (Fall 2000), pp. 265-300.
  4. Arthur S. Hulnick, “The Ames Case: How Could It Happen?” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 8/2 (Summer 1996), pp. 133-154.

 

February 27                Intelligence and Policy (I): The Role of Policymakers

 

Require Reading:

 

  1. Lowenthal, Ch. 9, “The Intelligence Process – The Role of the Policymaker,” pp. 120-132.
  2. Aspin-Brown Commission Report, Ch. 3, “The Need for Policy Guidance”
  3. Robert M. Gates, “The CIA and American Foreign Policy,” Foreign Affairs, 66/2 (Winter 1987/88), pp. 215-230.
  4. Jack Davis, “A Policymaker’s Perspective on Intelligence Analysis,” Studies in Intelligence, 38/5 (1995) [www.cia/gov/csi/studies/95unclass/Davis.html]
  5. Jack Davis, “Paul Wolfowitz on Intelligence-Policy Relations,” Studies in Intelligence, 39/5 (1996) [www.cia.gov/csi/studies/96unclass/index.htm]

 

Recommended Reading:

 

            Treverton, Ch. 6, “The Intelligence of Policy,” pp. 177-215.

 

March 6                       Intelligence and Policy (II): Covert Action

 

Required Reading:

 

  1. Lowenthal, Ch. 8, “The Intelligence Process – Covert Action,” pp. 106-119.
  2. Johnson, Ch. 8, “More Intelligent Intelligence,” pp. 180-184.
  3. Arthur S. Hulnick, “US Covert Action: Does It Have a Future?” Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 9/2 (Summer 1996), pp. 145-157.
  4. Thomas H. Henriksen, “Covert Operations: Now More Than Ever,” Orbis, 44/1 (Winter 2000), pp. 145-156.

 

Recommended Reading:

 

James Risen, “Secrets of History – The CIA in Iran,” New York Times, April 16, 2000.

 

March 13                     Intelligence and Policy (III): Intelligence Oversight

 

Required Reading:

 

  1. Lowenthal, Ch. 10, “The Intelligence Process – Oversight and Accountability,” pp. 133-154.
  2. Aspin-Brown Commission Report, Ch. 14, “Accountability and Oversight,” pp. 139-145.
  3. James S. Van Wagenen, “A Review of Congressional Oversight,” Studies in Intelligence (1997) [www.cia.gov/csi/studies/97unclass/wagenen.html]
  4. Britt Snyder, “Congress as a User of Intelligence: Sharing Secrets with Lawmakers,” Studies in Intelligence (Spring 1998) [www.cia.gov/csi/studies/
  5. Scan websites of Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.

 

March 20                     NO CLASS

 

March 27                     The Cold War Intelligence Agenda

 

Required Reading:

 

  1. Lowenthal, Ch. 11, “The Old Intelligence Agenda – What and How Well?” pp. 155-166.
  2. Douglas J. MacEachin, “CIA Assessments of the Soviet Union: The Record vs. the Charges,” CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence, May 1996. [www.cia.gov/csi/monograph/Russia/3496toc.html]
  3. Bruce D. Berkowitz and Jeffrey T. Richelson, “The CIA Vindicated: The Soviet Collapse Was Predicted,” The National Interest, 41 (Fall 1995), pp. 36-47.

 

Recommended Reading:

 

  1. Central Intelligence Agency, “CIA’s Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947-1991,” Center for the Study of Intelligence [www.cia.gov/csi/books/Princeton/index.html]
  2. ____________, “At Cold War’s End: US Intelligence on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, 1989-1991,” History Staff, Center for the Study of Intelligence (1999) [www.cia.gov/csi/books/19335/art-1.html]

 

April 3                          The Post-Cold War Agenda (I): Support to Military Operations, Peacekeeping and Humanitarian Operations

 

Required Reading:

 

  1. Lowenthal. Ch. 12, “The New Intelligence Agenda,” pp. 167-183.
  2. Aspin-Brown Commission Report, Ch. 10, “Military Intelligence,” pp. 105-115.
  3. Capt. James M. Lose, USMC, “National Intelligence Support Teams,” Studies in Intelligence (Winter 1999-2000) [www.cia.gov/csi/studies/winter99-00/art8.html]
  4. Thomas Behling and Kenneth McGruther, “Planning Satellite Reconnaissance to Support Military Operations,” Studies in Intelligence (Winter 1998-99) [www.cia.gov/csi/studies/winter98-99/art10.html]
  5. Hugh Smith, “Intelligence and UN Peacekeeping,” Survival, 36/3 (Autumn 1994), pp. 174-192.
  6. Paul Johnston, “No Cloak and Dagger Required: Intelligence Support to UN Peacekeeping,” Intelligence and National Security, 12/4 (October 1997), pp. 102-112.

 

April 10                        The Post-Cold War Agenda (II): Intelligence on Terrorism, WMD Proliferation, Narcotics Trafficking and International Crime

 

Required Reading:

 

  1. Johnson, Ch. 1, “A Planet Bristling with Bombs and Missiles,” pp. 11-31.
  2. Richard K. Betts, “Fixing Intelligence,” Foreign Affairs, 81/1 (January/February 2002), pp. 43-59.
  3. Aspin-Brown Commission Report, Ch. 4, “The Need for a Coordinated Response to Global Crime”
  4. Arthur S. Hulnick, “Intelligence and Law Enforcement: The ‘Spies Are Not Cops’ Problem,” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 10/3 (Fall 1997), pp. 269-285.

 

Recommended Reading:

 

            Treverton, Ch. 2, “The World of Intelligence beyond 2010,” pp. 20-61.

 

April 17                        The Post-Cold War Agenda (III): Economic, Energy and Environmental Intelligence

 

Required Reading:

 

  1. Johnson, Ch. 2, “Stocks and (James) Bonds: Spies in the Global Marketplace,” Ch. 3, “The Greening of Intelligence,” and Ch. 4, “Spies versus Germs: A Worldwide Resurgence of Bugs,” pp. 32-91.
  2. Gregory F. Treverton, “Intelligence and the Market State,” Studies in Intelligence, No. 10 (Winter-Spring 2001) [www.cia.gov/csi/studies/winter_spring01/index.htm]
  3. David D. Dabelko and Geoffrey D. Dabelko, “The International Environment and the U.S. Intelligence Community,” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 6 (Spring 1993), pp. 21-42.

 

April 24                        Ethics and Intelligence in a Democratic Society

 

Required Reading:

 

  1. Lowenthal. Ch. 13, “Ethical and Moral Issues in Intelligence,” pp. 184-200.
  2. Johnson, Ch. 9, “Balancing Liberty and Security,” pp. 199-222.
  3. Kent Pekel, “Integrity, Ethics and the CIA,” Studies in Intelligence (Spring 1998) [www.cia.gov/csi/studies/spring98/Integrity.html]
  4. N. Richard Kinsman, “Openness and the Future of the Clandestine Service,” Studies in Intelligence, No. 10 (Winter-Spring 2001) [www.cia.gov/csi/studies/winter_spring01/index.htm]
  5. Warren F. Kimball, “Openness and the CIA,” Studies in Intelligence, No. 10 (Winter-Spring 2001) [www.cia.gov/csi/studies/winter_spring01/index.htm]

 

Office:

            2147 F St, NW, Room B-1.

 

Office Hours:

            By appointment.