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Influenza Pandemics – History lessons and the ongoing H1N1 threat With the arrival of the global H1N1 pandemic this spring, Dr. Lone Simonsen, a professor of global health at George Washington University, and an internationally recognized expert in influenza and vaccine epidemiology, has gained substantial attention for her research on the epidemiology of historical pandemic influenzas. Her work shows that the 1918 “Spanish Influenza” began with a milder first wave that completely spared the elderly – similar to the current H1N1 trend. This historical perspective indicates that pandemics often go from mild to severe in their second wave, presenting a reality that is putting medical professionals on high alert this autumn. In order to learn more, Simonsen recently analyzed quantitative data from the1889 pandemic and found that a third wave was in fact the most severe in terms of mortality, and indeed the elderly were most at risk. “The history of pandemics has direct relevance to current public health policy and the way the world addresses the H1N1 threat,” says Simonsen. A “signature age shift” from deaths among youth to the elderly must be considered when prioritizing pandemic vaccines, she said. Simonsen’s study found that ~70 percent of those infected during the first wave of the 1918 pandemic were protected during the more severe autumnal wave. Simonsen has shared her expertise on influenza and malaria with the White House, the Council on Foreign Relations and the Gates Foundation and served as an expert advisor to the Center for Disease Control (CDC) and the World Heath Organization's (WHO) Advisory Committees on Immunization Practices. She is also a reviewer for numerous journals, including Nature, Science, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, and Lancet. |
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