Techniques


Use of a Simple Algebraic Extrapolation Technique to Draw a Distinction Between True Prediction and Manipulation of Past Data:

"Suppose that at times -2, -1, and 0 (the present) a variable took the values c,b, and a respectively. If we have reason to believe that the varible's change in time is quadratic in form, then if I find the value of the function

(-1/8)c + (3/4)b + (3/8)a,

I am finding (by Lagrange's Method) what the variable's value was at (-1/2), in the past. Nothing mysterious in that. If now I use the same three values and find the value of

(-3/8)c + (-5/4)b + (15/8)a,

I can, if I like, think of this as an estimate of the value it will have at (+1/2), in the future. I can also if I like, form

55c - 120b + 66a

and call it an estimate of the value at +10 in the future. All this has no reference to the actual future. We are doing nothing but manipulating, or re-coding, the past up to the present. What the brain does in this way, a computer can do." 18