Expectations
Dan Quayle has experience
none of the other candidates can match, he's run a very focused issue-based
campaign, and most Republican activists have favorable words for him.
In another election, Quayle might almost be running as the establishment
candidate. Quayle has put time in Iowa--he spent four days in the state
in 1997, fourteen days in 1998, and added another 17 days through the end
of July 1999; Marilyn Quayle has also made many visits. However, Quayle
is vying against Forbes, Bauer, Buchanan and Keyes for the support of social
conservatives--and he faces the added burden of a deeply-rooted, lingering,
media-induced stereotype.
 |
 |
| (August 12, 1999) Dan
Quayle stopped in at
the Iowa State Fair. |
|
Outcome: Eighth--916 Votes
(3.9%)
"He's gone," one observer
said as Dan Quayle's eighth place showing was posted. It was in truth
a disappointing result, and some pundits were quick to write the end of
the Quayle campaign. Nonetheless, Quayle vowed to stay in the race.
His Iowa leadership pointed out that the straw poll result was not as devastating
as it first appeared--that the campaign had only spent about $50,000, had
done well on a cost per vote basis, and would be ready for "the real caucus
vote in January, when it counts."
Memo sent out by Quayle's
Iowa campaign leadership to supporters after the straw poll.
Subject: Calling All Quayle
Supporters!
From: David Hudson and Gary
Geipel
To: Quayle Supporters in
Iowa
Date: Monday morning, August
16, 1999
This is not an official Quayle
campaign “statement.” It is simply a personal message from us to you in
response to the many fine calls and messages we had over the weekend.
The results of the Straw
Poll don’t seem like a reason to celebrate at first glance. When you consider
the bigger picture, however, there are plenty of reasons to feel good.
Here’s the bigger picture:
The Straw Poll was not an
election. It was a vote-buying exercise. The rank order of the candidates
matched the rank order of their expenditures almost exactly. No campaign
spent less money on the Straw Poll than the Quayle campaign. We spent about
$50,000 as compared to the millions spent by Bush and Forbes and the hundreds
of thousands spent by the other “top-tier” finishers. If the lowest “cost-per-vote”
number had won the Straw Poll, then Dan Quayle would have been on top.
We are proud of that number. The “winners” spent $400 to $600 per vote.
That is an embarrassment. That is a sign of desperation, not a sign of
strength.
Dan Quayle’s supporters came
because they believe in him. Not because someone promised them an air-conditioned
tent and a bag of gifts. Not because Dan Quayle filled their mailboxes
with flyers for weeks. Not because Dan Quayle saturated the Iowa airwaves
with commercials. Not because the pundits on TV told them that Dan Quayle's
nomination is "inevitable."
Every campaign that takes
federal matching funds – which means every campaign other than the Bush
and Forbes campaigns – faces a legal limit of $1.3 million in total spending
in Iowa. The Quayle campaign will spend that limit – but we refused to
spend it on something that is not even an election. We will spend it in
the run-up to the real caucus vote in January, when it counts.
Our phone banks and other
preparations for the Straw Poll allowed us to identify thousands of Quayle
supporters across Iowa. We knew at the outset that many of those people
would not be able to make the trip to Ames. But we also know that Dan Quayle's
supporters are not soft, casual supporters. They are die-hard, long-term
believers in Vice
President Quayle and his
message. Those people are the new core of a large volunteer organization.
They will call on the thousands of people the Quayles met in living rooms
and meeting halls across Iowa this summer. You saw the crowds at the events
we had with the Quayles. The Straw Poll did not measure that support. It
can’t measure that support. It simply measures how many tickets a campaign
was willing to buy at $25 per head.
Regardless of where Dan Quayle
finishes in any poll, we must not forget that he is the only one who can
go all the way. There are three required ingredients for a Republican to
win the White House: (1) The candidate must clearly differentiate himself
or herself from the Democrats on the issues. When the GOP blurs together
with the Dems at the mythical “center,” then we lose the White House every
time. (2) The candidate must have the experience of elected office. The
Americanpeople simply do not hand the White House to someone as their first
office. Eisenhower proved himself on the battlefield at D-Day; he’s the
exception that proves the rule. It is astonishing that more than half of
the Republicans running for president never have won an election in their
lives. They will not win this one, either. (3) A successful GOP nominee
must unify the party, which means unifying the economic, social, and national-security
conservatives, as Ronald Reagan did, while attracting cross-over Democrats.
You can’t unify the party by ignoring or insulting key constituencies.
Most of our candidates have forgotten this.
There was no one ahead of
Dan Quayle on the Straw Poll tally who meets those three requirements.
No one. Is Dan Quayle electable? Yes. He may be the only one who is electable.
Remember this! On our worst day in “the polls” – and the Straw Poll was
just another poll – the Quayle campaign stands a better chance of seeing
our man in the White House than those other folks do on their best days.
So start each day fresh, as Dan Quayle does, strong in the knowledge that
we are fighting the good fight to restore character, experience, and real
leadership to our nation’s highest office.
When our national campaign
manager called Vice President Quayle on Saturday night with the Straw Poll
results, Dan Quayle did not hesitate for one second in anger or disappointment.
Instead, his response was simple: “Let’s get up tomorrow and keep up the
fight.” He already was in New Hampshire at the time, ready to go to work
on Sunday in that other key state.
Our job now is to build Dan
Quayle’s Iowa organization. The Straw Poll was a two-day newspaper story.
It’s over and soon will be forgotten. What will not be forgotten
is the excitement and goodwill generated this summer by Dan and Marilyn’s
65-town tour of Iowa. We have a strong base to build on.
Already this weekend, we’ve
received many messages with ideas about where to bring the Quayles and
who to get on board. This is exactly what needs to be done! Each of you
is an ambassador for Dan Quayle. Spread the word about his message
and experience. Recruit new supporters. Ask friends and neighbors if they
will host one of those great coffees for Dan Quayle. Hold regular meetings
of your county Quayle organization to push the organization down to the
precinct level step-by-step. We’ll be in touch with key volunteers individually
and we’re ready to talk about new ideas any time. Call. Write. Send e-mail.
Always remember this: Dan
Quayle can win. He’s the only one who can win. Hope, honor, and history
are on our side.
