Expectations
In the first half of 1999,
George W. Bush raised $36 million, he consistently ran far ahead of the
Republican field in polls, he racked up endorsements, and he received extraordinary
media coverage. So much for the national picture; the question was
would it play in Iowa where grassroots organizing is required.
Given his strong position,
Bush's participation in the Ames straw poll was not a foregone conclusion,
but his Iowa campaign advised him not to skip the event.
Luke Roth, executive director
of Bush's Iowa campaign, set the bar high by stating a specific goal of
turning out 5,000 supporters at Ames. (By comparison, in 1996 the
Dole and Gramm campaigns had each gained 2582 votes, and in that contest
out-of-staters were allowed to vote). Bush's competitors charged he was
attempting to buy the election; one rumor floated in early June had it
that the campaign had offered to buy all the straw poll tickets!
Ames would mark the first
time Bush shared the stage with other presidential hopefuls since the Midwest
Leadership Conference in Indianapolis in August 1997; his performance in
that event was deemed by most observers to be uninspired.
Bush made his first visit
to Iowa on June 12, 1999, while other candidates had been plying the state
for years. By the eve of the straw poll Bush had participated in 27 events
in Iowa on 9 days; by comparison some of his competitors had spent 27 days
or more in the state in 1999 alone.
(August 13,1999) A front porch
picnic in Indianola.
Outcome: First--7,418
Votes (31.3%)
Bush secured a comfortable
win, gaining a record number of votes, surpassing the 5,000 vote goal set
by his Iowa campaign, and finishing well ahead of the nearest challenger
Steve Forbes. At the same time, Forbes and other competitors were
quick to point out that almost seven in ten of those who voted opted for
a candidate other than Bush. Spokesperson Karen Hughes stated, "I
think that's the way of people who did not win the straw poll to try to
explain why they did not win the straw poll."
Hughes said the campaign
had slightly exceeded its target spending level of $750,000: "We ended
up spending a little more today to buy extra tickets; we had factored in
I think about 5,000 tickets and we ended up buying more than that."
The final total was about $825,000 including spending on the day of the
poll.
After the results were
announced Bush spokeperson Karen Hughes summed them up in a media availability
on the floor of the Coliseum:
"Governor Bush exceeded all
expectations and shattered the records, winning more than three times as
many votes as had ever been won by any winner of the Iowa straw poll.
It was just a great night. We know it's only the beginning but this
was a fabulous way to jump start our organization for when it counts which
is the caucuses in late January."
Bush's statement:
August 14, 1999
Governor Bush Thanks Iowans
for Straw Poll Victory!
"Thank you very
much. Thank you. Laura and I thank you from the bottom of our hearts. We
want to thank our organization in Iowa, our hundreds of volunteers and
all the Iowans that came out to vote for me today. Today, we shattered
every record for the Ames Straw Poll. We met our expectations and we won
this straw poll the Iowa way.
"Two months ago, when my
Iowa supporters convinced me to participate in this straw poll, some pundits
said I had nothing to gain and potentially a lot to lose. Well thanks to
you, we gained a lot. We have more than accomplished what we set out to
do. We jump-started our grassroots organization for the main event, the
Iowa caucuses. Today was also a great day for the Republican Party of Iowa.
There is a new energy in the state, there’s a new enthusiasm in this state.
And this new energy will help Republicans take back the White House in
the year 2000.
"I want to congratulate my
fellow candidates and their organizations that worked very hard today as
well.
"The winner today was not
just George W. Bush. It was the Republican Party and our great ideas. It
was the democratic process. This is the great festival of democracy that
we participated in today. I want you to know that I know this is just the
beginning. I have a lot of work to do. But the victory today in Iowa put
me on the road to earning the nomination of the Republican Party.
"I appreciate all of you
who took time out of your lives to come here to Ames. I’m most grateful.
Thank you very much and God bless you all."
