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In the general
election, a number of orientating landmarks mark the way to Election Day:
the traditional Labor Day kick-off, the ad campaign, September debate negotiations,
the debates themselves, and a grueling last ditch effort as the candidates
go all out to win over a few more voters in key states. Charges and countercharges
fly; excitement builds. While all this is happening, the campaigns
are operating with one goal in mind: 270. Two hundred-and-seventy
electoral votes is the number needed to win, and major party presidential
campaigns deploy their resources accordingly.
| Each major party presidential
campaign recieves a fixed amount of money from the Federal Election Campaign
Fund for the general election; once the nomination has been secured and
the conventions concluded, it must determine how best to spend that money.
In some states the campaign will "play hard" or even "play very hard."
These states receive visits by the candidate, his wife, the vice presidential
candidate, and surrogates, and the campaign makes serious ad buys in them.
At the other extreme, some states are essentially written off as unwinnable;
they receive minimal resources. |
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Persuadable Voters
Once a campaign has decided
it will contest a particular state, it does not blindly throw resources
in. A rule of thumb in presidential elections is that about 40 percent
of those who turn out will vote for the Republican candidate no matter
what and another 40 percent will vote for the Democrat no matter what.
Thus much energy and resources are devoted to trying to reach the remaining
20 percent of the electorate--persuadable swing voters--with the
right message.
Campaign stops are scheduled
in media markets with high concentrations of persuadable voters.
People in these areas can expect to see a lot of political ads. Direct
mail pieces go out to swing voters. The message is carefully tailored
to attract persuadables or allay their concerns. To attract persuadables,
the major party nominees generally move toward the middle, toning down
more extreme elements of their messages that they had used to appeal to
party activists during the primaries.
For
a campaign, the electorate can be divided into three groups: those who
are for the candidate, those who are "agin" him and the undecided.
In the fall, much of the campaign's resources are directed to this third
group. Then, in the closing weeks, the campaign makes a substantial
effort to mobilize its base supporters. |
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Base Voters
As Election Day approaches
the campaign also seeks to mobilize its core supporters. Phone-banking
and precinct-walking are staples of get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts.
Campaign Finance
The fall campaigns of the
major party candidates are financed by direct grants from the Federal Election
Campaign Fund, which in turn is financed by the $3 check-off on individual
income tax returns. In 1996, the Dole/Kemp and Clinton/Gore campaigns
each received $61.8 million from the Fund. Perot '96 received $29
million, based on Perot's showing in 1992. In addition, the national
parties are allowed to spend a fixed amount advocating the election of
their nominees; in 1996 the limit for coordinated party expenditures was
$12 million. (All these figures will be adjusted for inflation for
2000). In 1996 campaign finance laws were essentially shredded as
the parties employed a very broad definition of soft money, which by law
is not supposed to be used in connection with federal campaigns.
Ad Wars
Needless to say, most of
the money given to the campaigns goes into television advertising. Generally
in the summer, the campaign will have put together an ad team which includes
both political and Madison Avenue talent. Based on polling data, the themes
the campaign wants to stress will have been identified. The ad team generates
ideas to convey those themes, and produces spots which are then tested
in focus groups, and, hopefully, approved by the campaign management. However,
the work does not stop with an ad "in the can" and approved; careful planning
is required to ensure that the ads are seen by the target audience. The
demographic watching "60 Minutes" differs markedly from that watching "Oprah."
It is left to media planners, juggling GRPs and dayparts, to put together
ad buys.
Of course television is not
the only medium available to the campaigns. Radio is an effective way to
reach some audiences, for example during drive-time. Because of its lower
profile radio is sometimes used to deliver negative messages. Magazine
and newspaper advertising can be very effective, but are not often utilized.
Persuasion mail and phone calls also convey the campaigns' messages. Finally,
in 2000, Internet advertising will no doubt play a role as campaign banner
ads appear on various Web sites.
General Election Travel
| Caveats and Disclaimer:
Travel information above is compiled from public schedules provided by
the campaigns, supplemented in some instances by news accounts. Therefore
impromptu stops and private meetings are generally not reflected; also
the Bush campaign was not very rigorous about providing info on fundraisers.
Finally, in terms of overall campaign travel, the activities of the candidates'
spouses are not included. Tipper Gore and Hadassah Lieberman were
quite active; Lynne Cheney did some independent travels and Laura Bush
relatively little. |
Understanding Television
Wars
Brennan Center
reports
PBS program "The 30-Second
Candidate"
SRDS
Television Bureau of Advertising
Nielsen Media Research
Examples of Media Planners/Buyers: Harmelin
Media & Associates, TBS Media Management,
Sherry
Jacobs Media
A Leading Media Rep: Katz
Media Group, Inc.
Copyright 1998, 1999, 2000
Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action.
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