After the relatively focused retail campaigns of Iowa and New Hampshire, the surviving candidates enter a dizzying array of primaries.  They must decide where to concentrate their efforts and resources as they jump around the country trying to hit key media markets and win enough delegates to gain their party nominations.

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The Basics
Democrats will send over 4,000 delegates and 500 alternates to their national convention in Denver, CO; these include close to 800 unpledged delegate votes.  Unpledged delegates are the DNC members, members of Congress, governors and distinguished party leaders known as superdelegates; they comprise about 19 percent of the total delegate votes.  Republicans will send 2,380 delegates to their national convention in Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN.

National party rules and state laws set out the timing and processes for selecting delegates to the respective national nominating conventions.  Caucuses are multi-step, party run processes that generally start at the precinct level and work up through county and district levels to a state convention. Presidential preference primary elections may be run by the party (although this is rare because it is expensive) or by the state, in which case in state laws apply.

Complicating matters, the two parties' rules are not entirely in sync.  Republican rules governing delegate selection are adopted by the preceding national convention (i.e. the 2008 rules were set in 2004).  Rule 15(b)(1) states:

No presidential primary, caucus, convention, or other meeting may be held for the purpose of voting for a presidential candidate and/or selecting delegates or alternate delegates to the national convention, prior to the first Tuesday of February in the year in which the national convention is held...

Stampede
Amazingly, important details of the 2008 calendar remained in flux on into March 2008.  State legislatures and parties sought to move their presidential primaries forward to give their states a greater say in the selection of the nominees, while the traditional early states of Iowa and New Hampshire steadfastly defended their first-in-the-nation status, and the national parties vowed to enforce their rules.  There was even talk that there might be a contest or two in late 2007.  For the campaigns the situation was somewhat akin to playing a football or basketball game while the exact dimensions of the field or court had not yet been finalized.

In the first part of 2007 a veritable stampede of states moved the dates of their primaries or caucuses forward (see the list below).  On November 26, 2007 Massachusetts became the final state to schedule its contest on February 5, 2008 as Gov. Deval Patrick (D) signed a measure accomplishing that into law.  All told twenty-four states held their contests on February 5, 2008, creating what has been dubbed "Super Duper Tuesday."

Several states, including Florida and Michigan, moved to go earlier than February 5 despite the penalties.  On May 21, 2007 Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) signed a bill to move the date of the state's presidential primary from the second Tuesday in March to the last Tuesday in January (January 29, 2008).  On August 31, 2007 Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) signed a bill setting the state's presidential primary on January 15, 2008.  Several Michiganders challenged the constitutionality of a provision of the Michigan law, which was finally upheld by the Michigan Supreme Court on November 21, 2007.

At its August 25, 2007 meeting the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee found the Florida Democratic Party plan in noncompliance, and voted to penalize Florida Democrats 100 percent of their delegates to the national convention if they did not come up with a plan within 30 days that complies with the timing requirement.  However, Florida Democrats stood firm.  On September 23, 2007 Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Karen Thurman announced the party would participate in the January 29 primary.   On October 4, 2007, U.S. Senator Bill Nelson and Congressman Alcee Hastings filed suit against Howard Dean and the DNC in the U.S. District Court, Northern District of Florida.  The Rules and Bylaws Committee voted to penalize Michigan Democrats 100 percent of their delegates at its meeting on December 1, 2007, while rejecting penalties for Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina (NH response).

While the states jockeyed for position, the candidates and campaigns had to figure out how to navigate the field.  On the Democratic side, DNC Chairman Howard Dean sent a letter on August 31, 2007 to each of the Democratic candidates in which gave an overview of the Rules and Bylaws Committee's August 25 meeting and the Florida situation and wrote, "I strongly urge you to do your part and support the actions of the Rules and Bylaws Committee."  Also on August 31 party leaders in the four designated early states called on candidates to pledge not to "campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential election primary or caucus before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina."  Richardson, Dodd, Biden, Edwards, Obama and Clinton quickly signed the pledge.

The Democratic candidates did not compete in the Michigan or Florida primaries, but Clinton's name was on the Michigan ballot and both candidates appeared on the Florida ballot.  The Clinton campaign put the two states in its win column.  A new chapter in the drama unfolded in March 2008 when the Democratic parties in the two states considered and put forth proposals to do re-votes so their delegates could be seated at the convention in Denver.  A cartoon by The Detroit News' Henry Payne brilliantly captures the of the situation.  The drawing portrays Obama and Clinton as runners far into a marathon, when a course official tells the tiring duo that they are going to rerun two stretches of the race.  In any event, the re-votes did not occur.

The Republican National Committee also adopted a strict stance on violations of the window.  On October 22, 2007 the RNC Executive Committee voted to penalize New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina, Michigan and Wyoming by half their delegates to the the Republican National Convention for starting their delegate selection in advance of Feb. 5, 2008; those penalties are reflected in the Call to the Convention the RNC issued on November 9, 2007.

It seems unthinkable, looking toward the November 2008 general election, that the DNC or the RNC would actually penalize battleground states such as Florida and Michigan by cutting their delegations to the respective national convention, but that is what the national parties are threatening.  The expectation is that the eventual nominees will rescind the penalties.  For example, a FAQ on the Florida Democratic Party website notes, "Although the DNC has said it will not recognize delegates from Florida, the Party plans to appeal to the eventual Democratic nominee for President to be seated at the Convention."

Broader Consequences
The effect of states moving their contests up is a frontloaded calender; this has been a major concern in recent cycles because it has tended to produce early nominees, resulting in low participation rates in later primaries.  Ironically, the 2008 primaries and caucuses were marked by high turnout, particularly on the Democratic side.  Frontloading also makes it difficult for lesser-funded candidates to compete.  According to this argument, if a momentum candidate were to emerge from one of the early retail states of Iowa or New Hampshire, he would have faced a very big challenge organizing to compete in 20 or so contests on February 5.  There have been efforts to produce a more logical calendar (see P2000 and P2004 pages and more recently the work of the DNC's Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling in 2005-06) but these initiatives have not met with success.

In 2008 the calendar was frontloaded to a far greater extent in the past.  Observers debated whether this would increase the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire.  Certainly the campaigns poured major resources into those states.  February 5, 2008 was an unprecedented day for both parties, and many observers believed the nominations would be decided on that day.  The Republican race actually continued to March 4 as former Gov. Mike Huckabee hung on despite Sen. John McCain's overwhelming advantage.  The Democratic race appears set to continue through June.

Democrats' Superdelegates Situation
On the Democratic side, the role of the superdelegates drew considerable attention due to the closeness of the race.  Critics saw the ability of the superdelegates to determine the nomination as undemocratic.  Clinton had gained a significant lead in support among superdelegates in 2007 (>), but Obama achieved a steady trickle of gains in the first months of 2008, coinciding with his electoral victories, and the pace picked up in May (>) including some who switched from supporting Clinton.  Both the Clinton and Obama campaigns (and their allies: see example) expended considerable energies to woo the superdelegates.  Meanwhile, the daily exchange of charges and countercharges between the Clinton and Obama campaigns (example: March 26 memos from Obama, Clinton campaigns) caused concern among Democratic leaders looking forward to the fall campaign.  In a March 19, 2008 column in the New York Times, Gov. Phil Bredesen (D-TN), himself a superdelegate who has not announced a preference, advanced the notion of a superdelegate primary to be held in early June after the final primaries.  Bredesen envisaged "a tight, two-day business-like gathering" as "a final opportunity for the candidates to make their arguments to these delegates, and then one transparent vote."

The Calm after the Storm
On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain wrapped up the Republican nomination on March 4, 2008 leaving almost six months until the convention.  During this period between the end of the primaries and the conventions, the presumptive nominees bolster their campaign organizations and place key people in the national party committees to prepare for the general election.  In early April Sen. McCain did a week-long "Service to America" tour designed to highlight elements of his biography.  The campaign works on positioning for the general election.  For example, conventional wisdom has it that the presumptive nominees must move back to the center after playing to more committed or extreme elements of their respective parties to win in the primaries.  How the candidate uses this time can have an important effect on his or her success in the fall.

In 1992 Bill Clinton used the month of June to regroup following a tough passage through the primaries.  In 1996 Bob Dole had essentially won the nomination by mid-March, but he faced the period from April to the convention with virtually no funds.  In June, Dole gained much attention when he surprised everyone by resigning his Senate seat.

Again in 2000 the post-primary period proved important.  Gov. George W. Bush effectively secured the Republican nomination on March 7, 2000; during late March and April he introduced a reading initiative, a plan to clean up brownfields, a "New Prosperity Initiative" to help people move from poverty to the middle class and a health care plan.  More such proposals followed in the months leading up to the convention.  For Vice President Gore, however, there were some bumps.  He moved his campaign headquarters to a third location and brought on a new campaign chairman, while weathering concerns about his polling numbers.  In June Gore launched a "Progress and Prosperity" tour.

In 2004 the calendar again led to early selection of the Democratic nominee.  Sen. John Edwards, the last major challenger to Sen. John Kerry, withdrew from the race on March 3. In the months leading up to the convention Kerry engaged in record-breaking fundraising efforts.

Vice Presidential Picks
Once a candidate gains enough delegates to become the presumptive nominee, speculation on possible running mates accelerates markedly. The campaigns do extensive vetting of vice presidential prospects, for the nominee doesn't want any unpleasant surprises as happened with Tom Eagleton in 1972 or the Dan Quayle choice in 1988.   Arthur Culvahouse, chair of O’Melveny & Myers LLP law firm, headed Sen. McCain's search effort.  Sen. Obama's vice presidential vetting team included Eric Holder, an attorney at Covington & Burling and a former Deputy Attorney General, and attorney Caroline Kennedy.  (Jim Johnson, a former chairman and CEO of Fannie Mae who also headed John Kerry's search, left his role on June 11, 2008 due to controversy over a special loan).  Despite a dearth of reliable information all sorts of rumors developed about the current favorites and the likely timing of announcements.

The presumptive nominee weighs many factors.  The most obvious criteria is that the vice president should be capable of ascending to the presidency in the event of the unexpected.  Compatability is a concern.  The vice presidential pick should add something to the ticket geographically, ideologically or in terms of experience.  The timing of the announcement must be considered as well.  Frequently this is done in the week leading up to the convention to build momentum toward that event and the fall campaign.  However arguments can be made for an earlier announcement; for example it could be helpful to have the duo out on the trail spreading the message.  During the during the primaries, there were suggestions that Sen. Clinton, trailing in the Democratic race, might emulate the example of Ronald Reagan, who, on July 26, 1976, challenging Gerald Ford for the Republican nomination, announced that he would pair with Sen. Richard Schweiker (R-PA).

Many Democratic activists liked the idea of "Dream Team," either Obama-Clinton or Clinton-Obama.  In early April 2008 Adam Parkhomenko formed a committee to advocate for "a Democratic unity ticket with both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama;" this effort was quite active for several months.  The tricky question of what role former President Bill Clinton might play in a possible Obama administration was one factor that diminished prospects of an Obama-Clinton ticket.  Most frequently mentioned were Gov. Tim Kaine (VA), Sen. Evan Bayh (IN), and Sen. Joe Biden (DE).

On the Republican side, there was a sense that because of McCain's age the vice presidential pick would be particularly important.  There was also talk that he woud want someone with strong economic credentials to balance his military background.  Another theme in the McCain speculation was that he would seek to add someone "exciting."  As former House Speaker Newt Gingrich stated in July, "a relatively boring, normal, mainstream Republican white guy" might not be the best choice this cycle.  Among the names most frequently floated were former Gov. Mitt Romney (MA), former Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR), Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA), Gov. Tim Pawlenty (MN), Gov. Charlie Crist (FL), and former Congressman and OMB Director Rob Portman (OH), and even Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman (CT). 

Both nominees ended up choosing somewhat surprising running mates.  Obama announced his selection of Biden five days before he accepted the nomination, on August 23 in front of the Old State Capitol in Springfield, IL.  Biden's foreign policy expertise and lengthy Washington experience were key attributes; it was also thought he could appeal to Catholic voters and that his Scranton upbringing might help in Pennsylvania.  On the downside, Biden can talk too much, and he did fare poorly in the Iowa caucuses.  McCain announced his selection of Gov. Sarah Palin (AK) on in Dayton, OH, on August 29, one day after Obama accepted the Democratic nomination and six days before he accepted the GOP nomination.  The Palin choice was seen as a bold gamble and energized delegates at the Republican National Convention and Republicans generally.

Links
www.vicepresidents.com "only web magazine dedicated to the ultimate #2s in our society"

REPUBLICANS Adam Brickley Draft Sarah Palin first postings on Feb. 27, 2007 (official launch March 4, 2007) + Mitt Romney: Free and Strong America PAC Government is Not God PAC nomittvp.com  [background/ad] Mike Huckabee: HuckPAC www.rice2008.com -DNC www.The NextCheney.com website -Change to Win July 30 press release on Fred Smith

DEMOCRATS "both Senators Clinton and Obama should run together for the general election" Vote Both Obama community blog "Vice Presidential Speculation Forum" SelectSmart.com 2008 Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate Selector -Fidelis July 29 press release on considering a pro-abortion Catholic -Free Enterprise Action Fund June 24 press release on Sam Nunn

Stampede: State Actions
Legislatures or parties in more than 20 states moved the dates of their presidential primaries or caucuses forward.
ALABAMA:  The presidential preference primary has historically been held with the state primary on the first Tuesday in June.  In 2005 Rep. Ken Guin (D-Carbon Hill) introduced a bill, HB100, to move the presidential primary forward; the House passed the bill on April 6, but the Senate failed to pass the bill by the close of session on May 16.  In January 2006 Guin reintroduced his bill, HB51 to establish a separate presidential primary "on the Saturday immediately following the New Hampshire presidential preference primary."  The bill, amended to set the presidential primary on first Tuesday in February, passed the House and the Senate and was delivered to Gov. Bob Riley (R) on April 17, 2006.  Riley signed the bill on April 27.  According to a fiscal note, HB51 "would increase the election expenses of the state, paid from the State General Fund, by an estimated $3.3 million for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2008 and every fourth year thereafter."  [from June 3 to Feb. 5]

ALASKA:  Democratic district caucuses and Republican district conventions will be held on February 5, 2008.  (In 2004 those events were held in March and May respectively).  The Alaska Democratic Party's State Central Committee set the February 5 date as part of its Delegate Selection Plan, adopted at its meeting in Anchorage on May 19.  [to Feb. 5]

ARIZONA:  Statute sets out the date of the presidential preference election as the fourth Tuesday in February, but the Governor can issue a proclamation to move the date forward (as happened in 2004 >).  On Aug. 21, 2007, Gov. Napolitano took that step, setting the date of the 2008 primary as February 5, 2008.  [to Feb. 5]

ARKANSAS:  In early March 2005 Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) signed into law SB235 "An Act Concerning Presidential Preferential Primary Elections" which moves the state's presidential primary from May to the first Tuesday in February.  The bill, by Sen. Tracy Steele (D-North Little Rock), easily passed both houses of the General Assembly.  [from May 20 to Feb. 5]

CALIFORNIA:    The California two-step (back then forward).
Part 1: On Sept. 27, 2004 Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) signed into law SB1730 which moves the state's primary back to June.  The legislation, by Sen. Ross Johnson (R-Irvine), had easily passed both chambers of the legislature.  Johnson termed the March primary an "utter failure."  His office noted, "In the 2004 Primary, California set a record for the lowest turnout ever in a presidential primary election.  In the 2002 Primary, California set a record for the lowest turnout ever in a primary election in our state's history.  And California's eight-month gap between the primary and general election resulted in the lowest turnout ever for a general election in November 2002."

Part II: On Feb. 24, 2006 then Assemblyman Tom Umberg (D), chairman of the Committee on Elections and Redistricting, introduced AB 2949, a bill to "require the Secretary of State to select a date that results in California being the first state in the United States to hold its presidential primary, as specified."  AB 2949 would also have required the presidential primary to be conducted entirely by mail.  Umberg's bill did not pass.

Part III: In 2007 there was a reinvigorated effort to move to an earlier presidential primary.  On Jan. 17, 2007, in response to a question at a Sacramento Press Club luncheon, Gov. Schwarzenegger stated,

"I've spoken to the leaders about that, and I think that it is just something that we should look at, because I'm interested to make California a player.  I mean, right now, think about it, we are the number one state in the union, we're the number one place in the world, and yet we are kind of an afterthought when it comes to presidential campaigns.  I mean, all those guys come out here and they clean up, and they take the money and they run; millions and millions and millions of dollars, both parties.  But we have no—we are not part of the decision making.  Or that they're even coming here and campaigning here, because they just it write if off, because California is not relevant.  So what we want to do is, we want to make California relevant.  And I think the way we make it relevant, this state, is by moving up the primaries maybe to February.  So this is something we talked about, and I think that that is something that we should shoot for."

COLORADO:  H.B. 1376 (“Precinct Caucus Day in Presidential Year”), passed by the legislature and signed by Gov. Bill Ritter (D) on June 1, 2007, states that a political party may, by decision of its state central committee, hold its precinct caucuses on the first Tuesday in February.  On July 21, 2007 Colorado Democrats voted at their executive committee meeting in Pueblo to hold their caucuses on Feb. 5, 2008.  "By moving this date forward in the election cycle Colorado takes a greater role in deciding the who becomes the next president," stated Pat Waak, Chair of the Colorado Democratic Party, in a press release.  In August 2007 the Colorado Republican State Central Committee likewise voted, by a margin of 71 percent to 29 percent, to change its precinct caucus date from March 18 to Feb. 5.  "This move should increase campaign activity in Colorado by all the Republican presidential candidates," Chair of the Colorado Republican Party Dick Wadhams stated in a press release.  [to Feb. 5]

CONNECTICUT:  Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz and representatives of both parties and several groups joined together for a press conference on March 27, 2007 to support moving the primary from March 4 to February 5.  According to a press release, Bysiewicz stated, "In the absence of a rational primary process, we are seeing an ad-hoc national primary take shape.”  "Connecticut didn’t start this tidal wave but I cannot stand by and allow our voters to become irrelevant.  Ultimately, members of both political parties must come together and enact real reform,” she said.  On June 1 the House passed SB-1184 by a vote of 118-29, on June 2 the Senate followed by a vote of 29-6, and on June 25 Gov. M. Jodi Rell (R) signed the measure into law.  [from March 4 to Feb. 5]

FLORIDA:  The primary is scheduled for January 29, 2008.  The effort to establish an early primary traces back to the first part of 2006, when then incoming House Speaker Marco Rubio (R-Miami) set out the goal of moving the state's primary up to seven days after the New Hampshire primary.¹ Idea #37 of the House Republicans' "100 Innovative Ideas for Florida's Future" stated, "Move Florida’s Presidential primary up to a time that would highlight Florida’s concerns and issues and would ensure our national influence in choosing a Presidential candidate."  On Jan. 23, 2007 Rep. David Rivera (R-Miami) filed HB 537, a bill to move the presidential primary to the first Tuesday in February or the first Tuesday immediately following the New Hampshire presidential preference primary, whichever occurs first.  The final bill, which weighed in at 80 pages, covered a range of topics ranging from third party voter registration to "requiring all voting to be by marksense ballot" (optical scan machines).  The final version of the bill dropped the link to the date of New Hampshire's primary and instead set a defined date of the last Tuesday in January.  The Senate approved the bill by a vote of 37-2 on April 27 and the House put up a vote of 118-0 on May 3.  On May 21, 2007 Gov. Charlie Crist (R) signed a bill to move the date of state's presidential primary to from the second Tuesday in March to the last Tuesday in January. (>).

...Republicans: In August 2007 the RPOF Executive Board adopted the party's 2008 delegate selection rules as well as language that gives its chairman "the ability to address any decision that the Convention might undertake that is converse to this position." >  As noted above, on October 22, 2007 the RNC Executive Committee voted to penalize Florida and four other states by half their delegates to the the Republican National Convention for starting their delegate selection in advance of Feb. 5, 2008; those penalties are reflected in the Call to the Convention the RNC issued on November 9, 2007.

...Democrats: State Democrats, facing a reduction in the number of pledged delegates and alternates by 50 percent, considered various options, such as holding caucuses or a convention on Feb. 5, 2008 or later.  A proposed vote by mail primary would have cost from $7 to 8 million.  On June 10, 2007 the State Executive Committee voted unanimously to use the state-run January 29 primary even at risk of a penalty. >  Some time later the DNC offered to put up $866,000 help fund a caucus with 120,000 ballots and 150 voting sites.  On August 4 the State Executive Committee formally adopted its Delegate Selection and Affirmative Action Plan, setting the date of Florida's Democratic Presidential Preference Primary for January 29, 2008. >

The matter heated up at the August 25 meeting of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee, where representatives of the Florida Democratic Party pleaded that they had done what they could to move the date within the window but were at the mercy of the Republican-controlled legislature.  Further, they argued that holding a caucus with just 150 voting sites compared to 6,700 locations for the state-run primary would hurt efforts to build the party in this key state and could affect the outcome of property-tax referendum to be held on January 29.  The Rules and Bylaws Committee held firm, found the FDP plan in noncompliance, and voted to penalize Florida Democrats 100 percent of their delegates to the national convention if they do not come up with a plan within 30 days that complies with the timing requirement.  "We're going to follow the rules," said RBC member Donna Brazile.

However, Florida Democrats stood firm.  On September 23, 2007 Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Karen Thurman announced the party would participate in the January 29 primary.   A FAQ on the FDP website notes, "Although the DNC has said it will not recognize delegates from Florida, the Party plans to appeal to the eventual Democratic nominee for President to be seated at the Convention." >

Florida's move set off changes in other states.  In particular, South Carolina has traditionally gone first in the South.  On Aug. 9, 2007 South Carolina Republicans announced a January 19, 2008 date for their primary; state Democrats resisted a move forward and vowed to follow their party rules. >  Michigan Democrats are watching what happens in the Florida case and have indicated they will move their caucus date forward if Democrats in another state violate DNC rules. >  [from March 4 to Jan. 29]
1. See: Lesley Clark and Mary Ellen Klas.  "Earlier primary touted as aid to Florida."  Miami Herald, March 31, 2006.

GEORGIA:  On May 29, 2007 Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) signed S.B. 194, a bill that, among other provisions, states that the presidential preference primary "shall be held on February 5, 2008, and on the first Tuesday in February every four years thereafter."  [from March 4 to Feb. 5]

ILLINOIS:  On Jan. 10, 2007 Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan proposed moving the Illinois presidential primary from March 18 to Feb. 5 to aid a possible campaign by Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL).  The House passed HB0426 on March 28, 2007, the Senate passed the bill on May 15, 2007, and Gov. Rod Blagojevich signed it into law on June 20, 2007.  [from March 18 to Feb. 5]

LOUISIANA:  The State Central Committee of the Republican Party of Louisiana on November 12, 2005 voted 86 to 23 to adopt a resolution calling on the Louisiana legislature "move the Louisiana presidential preference primary from the second Tuesday in March to the second Saturday in February.  However, if Mardi Gras falls on the second Tuesday of February, the primary will then be held on the third Saturday of February."  In 2006 legislators introduced two bills to move the presidential primary from the second Tuesday in March to February, Senate Bill 688 by Sen. Jay Dardenne (R-Baton Rouge) and House Bill 1307 by Rep. Nita Hutter (R-Chalmette).  Following unanimous votes for House Bill 1307 in both the House and Senate, Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) signed the measure into law on July 5, 2007. [March 11 to Feb. 9]
See: Christopher Tidmore.  "Louisiana's presidential primary may advance."  Louisiana Weekly.  April 2, 2007.

MASSACHUSETTS:  Massachusetts was the last state to join the stampede to an earlier primary.  Secretary of State William Galvin led a late push to move the 2008 presidential primary date from March 4 to February 5 in an effort to increase the Commonwealth's influence in the elections.  The measure made quick progress through the General Court.  On Nov. 14, 2007 the Joint Committee on Election Laws reported out favorably legislation to change the date in 2008.  The bill passed both Houses the week of Nov. 19, 2007, and Gov. Deval Patrick (D) signed it into law on Nov. 26, 2007.

MARYLAND:  State Democratic Party Chairman Terry Lierman sought to move the primary from the first Tuesday in March to the second Tuesday in February (March 4 to February 12) in presidential election years, when it would coincide with the primary in neighboring Virginia.¹  He had the support of Gov. Martin O'Malley and Senate President Mike Miller. HB 1434/SB 1025, introduced on March 9, 2007, passed both chambers of the legislature on April 2, and was signed by Gov. O'Malley on April 24, 2007.  [from March 4 to Feb. 12]
1. See John Wagner.  "Maryland Ponders Moving Up Primaries."  The Washington Post, March 9, 2007.

MICHIGAN:  One could almost write a book on the machinations around Michigan's Jan. 15, 2008 primary date.  Michigan Democrats, in particular Sen. Carl Levin, led the effort to challenge New Hampshire's privileged first-in-the-nation status.  Levin was the driving force behind creation of the DNC Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling which ran in 2005-06.   In April 2006 Michigan Democrats applied to the DNC for Michigan to be one of the new early pre-window states; however the DNC approved Nevada and South Carolina.  Fast-forward to 2007.  On Aug. 22, 2007, the Republican-controlled State Senate approved by a vote of 21 to 17 S.B. 624, which, as amended, required a statewide presidential primary election on Jan. 15, 2008 (the original bill set a date of January 29).  (reactions).  On Aug. 30, the Democratic-controlled House passed the legislation by a vote of 67 to 34, and the same day the Senate passed a concurred version of the bill.  (letter to candidates).  Gov. Granholm signed the measure into law on Sept. 4.  (press release).  However, on Oct. 24 Mark Grebner, an East Lansing political consultant, filed suit challenging the constitutionality of a provision of the law granting exclusive rights of voter lists to the Democratic and Republican parties.  (related)  In Nov. 2007 Ingham County Circuit Court Chief Judge William E. Collette issued an order prohibiting the Jan. 15 primary.  The Court of Appeals upheld the ruling on Nov. 16.  There were efforts to pass a legislative remedy and the parties prepared back-up plans. (press release).  Finally on Nov. 21 the Michigan Supreme Court reversed the lower court rulings.  (reactions). The Jan. 15 date violates Democratic and Republican national party rules, and both the DNC and the RNC have vowed to enforce penalties.
[from Feb. 26 to Jan. 15]

MINNESOTA:  Minnesota Statutes (202A.14) set out the date for precinct caucuses as the first Tuesday in March, which in 2008 is March 4.  However, the Minnesota Republican Party and the Minnesota DFL have moved to hold caucuses on Feb. 5, 2008.  On July 10, 2007 the Minnesota Republican Party executive committee voted to hold caucuses on Feb. 5, and in August 2007 the DFL State DFL Central Committee approved the change to Feb. 5 in a mail ballot.

Earlier there were legislative efforts to move the date forward, but party leaders determined that step was not necessary.
-In February 2007 State Sen. Dan Larson (DFL-Bloomington) introduced S.F. No. 893 to move the precinct caucuses from  the first Tuesday in March to the third Tuesday in February and the state primary from September to June.  On May 9 Larson offered an amendment, which was approved, to change the date of the precinct caucuses not to the third Tuesday, but to the second Tuesday in February.  On May 11 the Senate passed the bill by a vote of 55-9, and it was sent on to the House where it went to committee.
-In 2005 there was bipartisan support for efforts to move the precinct caucuses from the first Tuesday of March to the third Tuesday in February (another change > would move the state primary from mid-September to June).  The thinking was that February precinct caucuses would coincide with the Wisconsin primary to create a "Super Tuesday of the North" or "Frozen Tuesday."
-In 2003 legislation to move the date of the precinct caucuses passed the Senate but stalled in the House.

See:  "Minnesota appears likely to move up '08 party caucuses."  Associated Press, June 25, 2007. (in the Star Tribune)
         Bill Salisbury.  "Minnesota Legislature / Caucuses could be moved up in 2008."  Pioneer Press, May 9, 2007.

NEVADA (R):  After the Democratic National Committee voted for early Jan. 19, 2008 caucuses in Nevada, it appeared for a while that Nevada Republicans would be left to watch from the sidelines.  In early March 2007 the state GOP executive committee decided to move the party's precinct caucuses up to Feb. 7, 2008.  However, activists led by Chuck Muth and Pete Ernaut pushed for January caucuses, arguing although the early caucuses would violate Republican National Committee rules and could cost half of the state's delegates to the Republican National Convention to do otherwise could relegate the party to permanant minority status.  The Nevada Republican Party State Central Committee approved the move to Jan. 19, 2008 in a near unanimous vote during its April 21, 2007 meeting in Carson City.  [Jan. 19]

NEW JERSEY:    The New Jersey two-step (forward then further forward).
Part I: On July 7, 2005 Acting Governor Richard J. Codey (D) signed into law A30/S550 which establishes a separate presidential primary on the last Tuesday in February (the state primary remains in June).  Codey had highlighted the issue in his State of the State address on Jan. 11, 2005.  In prepared remarks he stated: "I am tired of being a bystander in the Presidential primaries.  I am tired of watching small states like Iowa and New Hampshire pick our presidential candidates.  I am sure that each state is a fine place to raise a family.  But they do not have the population, the diversity, and the concerns that we do.  New Jersey must move up its presidential primary. We've discussed this for years.  Now the time has come to make New Jersey a Presidential player instead of an ATM machine for Presidential candidates!"  The Assembly passed the legislation on June 20, 2005 by a vote of 66-6-6 and the Senate followed on June 23 in a 36 to 1 vote.  Sen. Joseph F. Vitale (D-Middlesex), a sponsor, stated at the bill signing, "The variety of issues that are debated during a Presidential campaign more closely mirror the interests that affect New Jerseyans every day.  New Jersey is in so many ways a microcosm reflecting the needs of the nation as a whole.  In the next race to the presidency, candidates will need the support of the Garden State to cement their standing as either party's pick for the presidential nomination, if they are to truly represent the needs and wishes of the people."  The Office of Legislative Services estimates the cost of a separate presidential primary at $10.3 million.

Part II: However, the last Tuesday in February was not early enough.  On Sept. 18, 2006 Sens. Richard J. Codey and Ellen Karcher introduced S2193 to change the date of presidential primary from the last Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday after first Monday in February.  The Senate voted to approve the bill on Dec. 4, 2006 by a vote of 33-5, the Assembly followed by a vote of 57-20-2 on March 15, and Gov. Jon Corzine (D) signed the measure on April 1. [from June to Feb. 26 to Feb. 5]

NEW MEXICO:  No changes required.  A law signed by Gov. Richardson in April 2003 gives the parties the option of selecting delegates through a presidential preference primary held on the same date as the state primary (as has been done in past) or "in accordance with the selection procedure" of the party.  [Democrats Feb. 5]

NEW YORK:  Leaders in the legislature acted to move the state's presidential primary from March 4 to February 5 to help home-state candidates Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R).  On March 7, 2007 they introduced S.3544/A.6430, to move the spring primary (held in presidential years for electing delegates to the national conventions) from the first Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February (the regular primary will still be held on the first Tuesday after the second Monday in September).  According to the justification for the Assembly bill, "Numerous states have moved, or are considering moving, their presidential primary to an earlier date.  Specifically, other influential states that have similar demographic profiles and similar public-policy issues to New York State`s are contemplating shifting their primaries to February 5.  A similar change will give New Yorkers an early voice in the selection of the best presidential candidates for the state and the nation and will reflect New York`s impact on and importance to our nation."  The bill passed both Houses of the State Legislature on March 21, 2007.  Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D) signed it into law on April 9 stating, “Moving the primary date to February, we will help secure New York’s large and diverse population an influential voice in selecting the 2008 presidential nominees.”  [March 4 to Feb. 5]

TENNESSEE:  The House passed HB2211 to move the date for presidential preference primary from the second Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in February on March 22, 2007 by a vote of 91-2 (and 1 present), the Senate followed on April 16 and Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) signed the legislation into law on April 30. [Feb. 12 to Feb. 5]

UTAH:  In January 2006 Senate Majority Leader Peter Knudson (R) introduced a Western States Presidential Primary bill (S.B.60) to hold a presidential primary on the first Tuesday in February.  The Senate passed the bill by a wide margin in mid-February, the House followed on March 1 and Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) signed the measure into law on March 21, 2006.  [Feb. 5]

WEST VIRGINIA (R):  Republicans plan to select At-Large delegates to the Republican National Convention at a State Presidential Convention to be held on Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2008at Charleston Civic Center.  District delegates will be elected in the May 13, 2008 primary election.  The process will begin with an enrollment period Sept. 1-Nov. 30, 2007. [Republicans Feb. 5]

WYOMING (R):  Wyoming Republicans plan to hold the party's 2008 county conventions on "the same date as the New Hampshire Republican Primary, whenever that may be."  [Feb. 3, 2007 letter]  [Jan. 5]
 

unsuccessful efforts to move earlier...
KANSAS:  Kansas last held a presidential preference primary in 1992.  In the first part of 2007 it appeared quite possible that the state might hold a primary in February 2008.  Such a move might provide a boost for homestate Sen. Sam Brownback, a candidate for the Republican nomination.  Stephanie Wing, a spokesperson for the Secretary of State, stated (Jan. 12, 2007 e-mail), "Several members of the legislature have publicly stated they are onboard, and one Senator (Senator Phil Journey, R-Wichita) is prepared to introduce a bill asking for one.  The governor is also supporting the idea, and included the funding in her new budget."  More broadly, Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh hoped to build support for an early Midwestern regional primary.  On April 26 the House approved an amendment by Rep. Tom Sawyer (D-Wichita) which would have provided $1.66 million to reimburse counties for a primary to be held on Feb. 2, 2008.  However by the end of the session the legislature failed to approve funding, and the parties will hold caucuses.
See John Hanna (AP).  "Will Midwestern bloc share a primary date in '08?" The Wichita Eagle, Dec. 1, 2006.
Tim Carpenter.  "Kansas presidential primary real possibility."  The Capital-Journal, Jan. 12, 2007.

MONTANA:  There were efforts in the 2007 and 2005 Legislative Sessions to move the presidential primary forward.  House Bill 797, introduced by Rep. Duane Ankney, would have required the Secretary of State to select by September 15th of the preceding year a date in February or March for the presidential preference primary election.  The House passed the bill on March 29, 2007, and it went to the Senate but died in standing committee.  Ankney's bill was very similar to House Bill 376, introduced by Rep. Christopher Harris on Jan. 20, 2005; that bill likewise passed the House but died in process in April 2005.

NORTH CAROLINA:  On Jan. 31, 2005 Sen. Andrew C. Brock (R) filed legislation, SB18, to move the presidential primary from the Tuesday following the first Monday in May to the first Tuesday in February.  The bill did not move from committee, however.  Brock reintroduced his bill, SB168, on Feb. 13, 2007, but it again languished in committee.

OREGON:  On April 3, 2007 the House Elections, Ethics, and Rules Committee passed H.B. 2084, a bill which would have set the first Tuesday in February 2008 as the date of the Oregon presidential primary election.  The bill did not advance further.

OHIO:  On July 17, 2007 State Sen. Eric Kearney (D-Cincinnati) introduced S.B. No. 202, a bill to move the state's presidential primary election from the Tuesday after the first Monday in March to the last Tuesday in January.  The legislation did not advance.

PENNSYVLANIA:  On Dec. 13, 2004 Gov. Ed Rendell (D) established a 13-person Election Reform Task Force charged with examining six aspects of the state's elections, including the date of the presidential primary.  Rendell stated he wanted "to move the Pennsylvania primary as early as feasibly possible so that Pennsylvania voters may have a say in the selection of the Democratic and Republican nominees for President in 2008 and beyond."  In its final report, issued on May 12, 2005, the Task Force recommended moving presidential and state primary elections to the first Tuesday in March (for 2008 and 20012).  However the General Assembly must act for the change to be implemented.  Several bills (HB627, HB1661, SB40) were introduced in the 2005-06 session, but did not advance.  One bill made some headway in the 2006-07 session.   Rep. Harry Readshaw (D-Allegheny)'s HB289, introduced in Feb. 2007, among other provisions would have moved the state's primary from the fourth Tuesday of April to the second Tuesday of February in presidential years.  On July 10, 2007 the House passed HB289 by a vote of 117-85.  However, the legislation did not advance in the Republican-controlled Senate.

RHODE ISLAND:  Rhode Island looked set to become a late entrant in the February 5 stampede until in early Nov. 2007, when Gov. Don Carcieri (R) vetoed a bill to move the presidential primary from the first Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February (Feb. 5, 2008), citing concerns of local election officials.   The General Assembly passed the legislation by Sen. Leonidas Raptakis (D-Coventry, East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick) in a special session on Oct. 30, 2007. (press release)  Earlier, on Feb. 15, 2007 in the regular 2006 session, Raptakis had introduced a similar measure, S0740.  The Senate approved that measure on May 2, 2007 and referred it to the House Judiciary Committee, but it was not taken up.

TEXAS:  Texas came close to joining the stampede to Feb. 5, 2008.  Two bills HB 993 and HB 996 were also introduced in late January 2007 and a third, HB 2017, followed on Feb. 26.  On April 13, 2007 by a vote of 123 to 12 with 1 present and not voting the Texas House approved HB 2017, a bill to move the general primary and the presidential primary from first Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February.  However, the identical Senate bill, SB 1843, failed to advance and its sponsor, Sen. Royce West (D-Dallas), removed it from the Senate intent calendar on May 23.  Stefan D. Haag, a professor of government at the Pinnacle Campus of Austin Community College, noted in an e-mail that one concern with this legislation was "the burden on election officials in conforming to new dates (registration deadlines, sending new registration cards, filing dates for candidates, etc.), many of which fall over the holiday season."

WESTERN STATES PRIMARY: The idea of organizing a Western states primary early in the nominating calendar in order to advance Western states' issues had been percolating for many years.  Then Colorado Gov. Roy Romer (D) first advocated a Western regional primary in the mid-1990s.  Again the lead up to 2000, then Utah Gov. Michael Leavitt (R) advocated a Western Regional Presidential Primary.  As originally outlined, the 2000 Western Primary would have grouped together up to eight Western states on an early March date in order to focus attention on Western issues and encourage the candidates to campaign in the region.  Ultimately only Colorado, Utah and Wyoming participated, holding contests on March 10.

In 2004 and 2005 proponents of the idea continued with their efforts.  They envisaged that eight states would hold primaries or caucuses on February 5, 2008: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming.  In June 2004 Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), a prominent advocate, persuaded the Western Governors Association to pass a resolution on the matter.  Colorado political consultant Mike Stratton worked to promote the idea (March 7, 2005 press release).  A representative of Democrats for the West testified at the DNC Commission's May 14, 2005 meeting in Chicago.  On October 11, 2005 Gov. Richardson, Gov. Jon Huntsman (R-UT) and a group of Utah legislators and party leaders held a press conference in Santa Fe to show bipartisan support for the idea and propose the February 5 date.  At the DNC's 2005 winter meeting in Phoenix, Western Democrats circulated a petition.

However, a shift occurred following the release of the DNC Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling's recommendations on December 10, 2005.  These included a call for the addition of one or two early first-tier caucuses.  The prospect that Nevada might be one of those early states appeared to address the objectives of Western Primary advocates (Feb. 2006 interview).  The DNC did indeed select Nevada to hold an early caucus.  Several Western states still are set to hold contests on February 5:
See also: Democrats for the West  |  Western Democrat blog (published by Mandate Media)
 

See also: NCSL changes in the 2004 cycle.
 

Looking Ahead: For 2012 or beyond...
There are ideas for broader reforms, but these would require cooperation of Democrats and Republicans and would necessitate changes in some state laws.  Because Republicans adopt their rules for the following cycle at their National Conventions, efforts to harmonize the two parties' processes and move back the start of the primary season need to occur in advance of the 2008 Republican National Convention.  One of the recommendations of the DNC's Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling was that the party chairman "begin a series of discussions with the RNC as the RNC begins to draft its 2012 rules."  How much consultation has occurred is unclear, but on April 2, 2008 the RNC Rules Committee approved the "Ohio Plan" [PDF] which calls for states to be grouped in a series of rotating pods.  Under the plan, which must be approved by the full RNC in August, Iowa and New Hampshire would retain their first status going in the first week of February 2012, followed by Nevada and South Carolina, followed by small states and territories no earlier than the third week of February.  Three groups of states or pods would then hold contests in the first full week of March, the fourth full week of March, and the third full week of April.  On the Democratic side, on August 20, 2008 the Obama campaign announced a proposal to establish a "Democratic Change Commission."  According to the press release, "The goal of the commission will be to ensure that no primary or caucus is held prior to the first Tuesday in March of 2012, with the exception of the approved pre-window states, whose contests would be held during February 2012."

Another notable reform proposal is the National Association of Secretaries of State (NASS)'s rotating regional primary plan.  NASS backed the plan in 2000 and has continued to advocate for it.  The Carter-Baker Commission on Federal Election Reform endorsed this idea as one of 87 recommendations in its Sept. 19, 2005 report.  On July 31, 2007 Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Lamar Alexander (R-TN) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT) announced tri-partisan legislation to create a regional primary system based on the NASS plan.  Their bill, the Regional Presidential Primary and Caucus Act of 2007, is S.1905; Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL) introduced an identical bill in the House, H.R.3487.  Rep. Sander Levin (D-MI) has also introduced the Interregional Presidential Primary and Caucus Act of 2007, H.R.1523.

Another idea which has gained a bit of notice is the America Plan, also called the California Plan.  This would create a "graduated random presidential primary system," which would establish a calendar with a set of state delegate selection contests held every two weeks over a period of about 20 weeks.  The proposal is described in essence by the formula "sum of 8n with the value of n going from 1 to 10," where n is the number of congressional districts.  On the first date, contests would occur in states with a total of up to eight congressional districts.  On the second, date contests would occur in states with a total of up to 16 (8 x 2) congressional districts, and so forth; there would also be adjustment to insure that big states are not discriminated against.  Thomas Gangale (>) developed this proposal in his paper "The California Plan: A 21st Century Method for Nominating Presidential Candidates" (Political Science and Politics (2004), 37:81-87, >). FairVote/The Center for Voting and Democracy, a nonprofit group that promotes electoral reforms, is a leading advocate of this idea and in June 2007 launched a FixthePrimaries.com promotional effort.  Calfornia Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres has also supported the idea.  However, Tim Edwards points out a number of "fatal flaws" with the the American Plan, for example arguing that ten primaries is too many and that and the plan has a significant liberal bias.  He proposes a Modified American Plan.

Former DNC Chairman Don Fowler has said he thinks the only way reform can be achieved is if Congress acts, which seems unlikely.  If a president were to put his or her support behind a plan that might help as well.
 

Copyright © 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008  Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action