In the general
election, a number of orientating landmarks mark the way to Election Day:
the traditional Labor Day kick-off, the ad campaign, September debate negotiations,
the debates themselves, and a grueling last ditch effort as the candidates
go all out to win over a few more voters in key states. Charges and countercharges
fly; excitement builds. While all this is happening, the campaigns
are operating with one goal in mind:
270. Two hundred-and-seventy
electoral votes is the number needed to win, and major party presidential
campaigns deploy their resources accordingly.
Battleground or Swing States and Other
States
In a real sense the general
election begins once the nominees are known; then the putative nominee
turns his or her attention from the primary contest to the opponent he
or she will face in the general election. In narrow terms the contest
begins after the nominee is ratified at the national convention and his
or her presidential campaign receives the grant from the Federal Election
Campaign Fund to conduct the general election campaign. The campaign
must determine how best to spend that money. In some states the campaign
will "play hard" or even "play very hard." These contested states
receive frequent visits by the candidate, his wife, the vice presidential
candidate, and surrogates, and the campaign makes serious ad buys in them.
At the other extreme, some states are essentially written off as unwinnable;
they receive minimal resources. For example in the nine months from
March 2004 to Election Day President Bush made 19 visits to Ohio
and Senator Kerry made 24 visits; during that same period California received
just 2 visits from Bush and 6 visits from Kerry. As the weeks progress
a campaign may upgrade or downgrade its importance as it becomes more or
less competitive.
Persuadable Voters and Base Voters
Once a campaign has decided
it will contest a particular state, it does not blindly throw resources
in. A conventional rule of thumb in presidential elections is that
about 40 percent of those who turn out will vote for the Republican candidate
no matter what and another 40 percent will vote for the Democrat no matter
what. Thus much energy and resources are devoted to trying to reach
the remaining 20 percent of the electorate--persuadable swing voters--with
the right message.
Campaign stops are scheduled
in media markets with high concentrations of persuadable voters.
People in these areas can expect to see a lot of political ads. Direct
mail pieces go out to swing voters. The message is carefully tailored
to attract persuadables or allay their concerns. To attract persuadables,
the major party nominees generally move toward the middle, toning down
more extreme elements of their messages that they had used to appeal to
party activists during the primaries.
In 2004, however, the electorate
was highly polarized; people were for President Bush or they were against
him. The pool of persuadable voters was seen as smaller and the campaigns
focused much attention on mobilizing their core supporters. As Election
Day approaches campaign redouble their efforts to mobilize supporters.
Phone-banking and precinct-walking are staples of get-out-the-vote (GOTV)
efforts.
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a campaign, the electorate can be divided into three groups: those who
are for the candidate, those who are "agin" him and the undecided.
In the fall, much of the campaign's resources are directed to this third
group. Then, in the closing weeks, the campaign makes a substantial
effort to mobilize its base supporters. |
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Campaign Finance
The fall campaigns of the
major party candidates are financed by direct grants from the Federal Election
Campaign Fund, which in turn is financed by the $3 check-off on individual
income tax returns. In 2004, the Kerry/Edwards and Bush/Cheney campaigns
each received $74.620 million in federal funds to conduct their general
election campaigns (this is the $20 million figure provided for in the
1974 Federal Election Campaign Act adjusted for inflation). The campaigns
must agree to abide by a spending limit, although they can raise funds
for legal and accounting expenses. The candidates officially become
party nominees at their conventions. The FEC certified the Kerry
campaign to receive the funds on July 30, 2004, and it certified the Bush
campaign a month later on September 2, 2004. Kerry campaign officials
have cited the fact that they had to spread their funds out over a month
longer than the Bush campaign as a significant hurdle they had to overcome.
However, the campaigns are not the only players on the field. The
national parties are allowed to spend a fixed amount advocating the election
of their nominees; the limit for coordinated party expenditures in 2004
was $16,249,699. The parties
are also free to make independent expenditures supportive of their nominees.
In 2004 Section
527 groups such as America Coming Together and The Media Fund on the
Democratic side and Progress for America and Swift Boat Vets and POWs for
Truth on the Republican side raised and spent significant sums of money.
Field Organization
On a technical note, the
field organization on the ground in a given state is typically carried
out by a coordinated campaign or Victory campaign which is funded by the
state party and the national party and seeks to elect party officials up
and down the ticket. In 2004 Bush had an advantage in that because
he was the incumbent and certain nominee, his campaign was able to start
organizing in key states in the latter part of 2003; the Democratic campaign
didn't start staffing up until June or July in key states although planning
was done earlier. Eventually, if the state is competitive the campaign
will open up field offices and mobilize volunteers.
Ad Wars
Most of the money given
to the campaigns goes into television advertising.
Generally in the summer, the campaign will have put together an ad team
which includes both political and Madison Avenue talent. Based on
polling data, the themes the campaign wants to stress will have been identified.
The ad team generates ideas to convey those themes, and produces spots
which are then tested in focus groups, and, hopefully, approved by the
campaign management. However, the work does not stop with an ad "in
the can" and approved; careful planning is required to ensure that the
ads are seen by the target audience. The demographic watching "60
Minutes" differs markedly from that watching "Oprah." It is left
to media planners, juggling GRPs and dayparts, to put together ad buys.
Of course television is not
the only paid medium available to the campaigns. Radio is an effective
way to reach some audiences, for example during drive-time. Because
of its lower profile radio is sometimes used to deliver negative messages.
Magazine and newspaper advertising can be very effective, but are not often
utilized. Persuasion mail and phone calls also convey the campaigns'
messages as can Internet advertising. In 2004 the Bush campaign pursued
a more wide-ranging advertising effort than the Kerry campaign, investing
significant amounts in cable and in radio.
| Copyright
© 2006 Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action |
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