Press Release Archive: GW Researcher Offers Millenium Forecast of Future Breakthroughs

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE	CONTACT: Richard Sheehe
January 1, 2000	202-994-3087

GW RESEARCHER OFFERS MILLENIUM FORECAST OF FUTURE BREAKTHROUGHS
Top-Ten Lists are Highlights from Online Think-Tank on Emerging Technologies

WASHINGTON-- A researcher of emerging technologies in The George Washington University's School of Business and Public Management has released a pair of lists predicting the top ten technological breakthroughs for both the coming decade and the coming century. Professor William E. Halal based his predictions on ten years of research in forecasting emerging technologies. Every two years, Halal and his associates have pooled the knowledge of the world�s best experts in all scientific fields to estimate when roughly 100 technologies will enter the economic mainstream, the confidence in this forecast, and the market potential. This endeavor has recently moved online. The two lists below represent highlights from the GW Forecast (gwforecast.gwu.edu ), an online think tank hosted by GW and administered by Professor Halal.

Breakthrough	Date	Confidence Level
*Top Ten Breakthroughs for the Next Decade*
Portable information devices accessing all media are common	2003	+/- 2 years
Fuel-cell cars enter the market	2005	+/- 3 years
Precision farming is common	2005	+/- 3 years
Mass customization of cheap, high quality goods is common	2007	+/- 3 years
"Teleliving" --interactive wall monitors are used for work, shopping, etc	2008	+/- 3 years
"Virtual" electronic assistants help people conduct their work	2008	+/- 3 years
Genetically modified foods gain wide acceptance	2008	+/- 5 years
Computerized health care is available	2009	+/- 4 years
Alternate energy sources are widely used	2009	+/- 4 years
Smart mobile robots used in homes and factories	2010	+/- 5 years

Top Ten Breakthroughs for the Next Century
"Maglev" trains connect major cities	2012	+/- 5 years
Children can be genetically designed	2012	+/- 5 years
Optical computers are developed	2015	+/- 5 years
Automated, intelligent highways are developed	2015	+/- 5 years
A base on the Moon is established	2015	+/- 5 years
Cloned/artificial organs can replace most body parts	2020	+/- 10 years
Humans land on Mars	2022	+/- 5 years
Genetic therapy can cure most illnesses	2025	+/- 5 years
Average human life span reaches 100 years	2030	+/- 3 years
Humans travel to a nearby star system	2050	+/- 10 years

Professor Halal is available for interviews throughout the New Year's weekend. Although the University is closed until January 3, he can be reached directly by calling 202-363-0222 or via email at halal@gwu.edu.

-- GW --