November 15, 2002
The Center for Latin American Issues
Presents
"
A Symposium
On October 27, Brazilians elected Luiz Inacio
"Lula" da Silva to be their new president. The first Labor party president
in the history of Brazil, Lula won with 62% of the valid votes. On Friday,
November 15, GW’s Institute for Brazilian Issues hosted a symposium to
discuss the meaning of the elections and challenges that lie ahead for the
Brazilian government. In this unique forum, five congressmen from five
different parties presented their views. Participating in the session
were: Congressman José Carlos Aleluia (PFL); Congresswoman Yeda Crusius (PSDB);
Congressman Nelson Pellegrino (PT); Congressman Nelson Proença (PPS); and
Congressman Júlio Redecker (PPB).
 Dr. James Ferrer introduces the congressmen |
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All of the congressmen agreed that the recent elections, which included
races at the national, state and local levels, represented a critical and
successful demonstration of a well-functioning democratic system at work
in Brazil. Congressman Nelson Proença noted that, in spite of the
traumatic history of leftist parties taking over in Latin America, the PT
is well positioned to take power with no rupture in the democratic system.
Lula has worked closely with the Cardoso government to ensure a smooth
transition.
The PT’s congressional representation falls far short of a majority, and
it cannot govern by itself. One of Lula’s most important tasks, then, will
be to forge coalitions in order to govern effectively. However, Lula is a
highly skillful negotiator and should be able to create alliances, noted
Congressman José Carlos Aleluia. The PFL, Aleluia said, would offer a
constructive opposition to Lula, but other parties might not be so
disposed. Aleluia believes that the PSDB will “sign its own death warrant”
if it aligns with Lula.
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 The Audience |
Pellegrino stated that the PT rejects the neoliberal agenda, and that it
would pursue an alternative agenda. He stressed, however, that the party
is committed to economic stability and that its policies will consciously
seek to avoid sudden changes. The PT will not move backwards in what has
been developed democratically, he said, and will work through democratic
institutions to promote change. The PT will honor all contracts, and will
promote fiscally responsible policies, as PT governments at the state and
local levels have proven. The PT is not likely to continue the
privatization efforts that were an important part of Cardoso’s reform
efforts, but the PT will not reverse those privatizations that have
already taken place. The state will also continue to build public/private
partnerships, for example, to make electricity production and distribution
more efficient.
The PSDB seems willing to support Lula, said Congresswoman Yeda Crusius.
She pointed out that there are substantial similarities between Lula and
President Cardoso. Lula has moved toward the political center and will
essentially follow the same lines as Cardoso. She believes the Lula
administration will be fiscally responsible.
Proença stated that the government appears to have support from a broad
sector of Brazilian society, and that fact should contribute to stability
after Lula takes office on January 1. Proença noted that, in addition to
the traditional PT stronghold in the labor movement, Lula has considerable
support in the business community, and that the media (in Brazil and
internationally) are watching the situation and supporting a smooth
transition. He stressed that the PT has firm democratic roots, and has
nothing in common with Castro or Chávez. Moreover, Brazil depends too
heavily on foreign capital, technology and trade to close its economy.
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Congressman Nelson Pellegrino also emphasized the need for various parties
to find common ground in order to move forward. In order to effectively
develop consensus, he said that the PT would work to create an open
network with workers and business. The PT has proposed the creation of a
National Development Council, which will bring businesses, workers, and
civil society together to discuss items for reform in Brazil. By the time
these proposals reach the National Congress, a broad consensus will have
been formed.
Congressman Júlio Redecker agreed that the PT is not the same party it has
been in the past. Instead, Lula represents the new brand of modern
Brazilian opposition. Where the left used to be intransigent, Lula has
learned from economic mistakes of the past. As a result, he doesn’t try to
please all leftist radicals and is more likely to build policy consensus.
The panelists discussed several critical policy challenges for the Lula
administration. First and foremost seems to be the need to reform the
social security system, which absorbs a disproportionately large share of
government resources. Another of the President’s challenges will be to
overcome the PT’s lack of presence at the state level. While voters
elected a PT candidate to the presidency, they elected only three PT
governors, and those are in small states. This will increase pressure on
Lula to give states more control over their budgets, but this control may
be difficult to wrest from congress. The strongest opponents to Lula,
noted Aleluia, may come from radical elements within Lula’s own party,
which may feel that the PT has abandoned its traditional policies and
political base. Indeed, one audience member from the PT strongly
questioned Lula’s commitment to labor organizations.
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Crusius discussed the recent history of economic and political reform in
Brazil, noting how the popularity of Lula’s message has grown because of
current political and economic trends. The ‘shock’ plans of the 1980’s
failed to end inflation and to increase production. By the mid 1990’s,
these plans gave way to a plan that maintained economic responsibilities
while building a stronger network of social protection. In this respect,
Lula’s emphasis on developing social programs has recent precedent and
should be seen as an aspect of continuity. In other words, Crusius
emphasized the incorrectness of the belief that Lula’s election would lead
to a rupture in either representative democracy or in economic stability
in Brazil.
Redecker pointed out that “the neo-liberal model is not part of the PT
dialogue,” but Lula seems to adhere to many of its tenets. He recognizes
the need to maintain economic discipline, to preserve democratic values,
and to fulfill social needs. The PPB, noted Redecker, is split on how best
to contribute to the future of Brazil. The party wants to support
responsible change without obstructing the process of reform. For example,
the PPB will not support fiscal reform that increases taxes. He proposed
the creation of an autonomous institution to evaluate the use of public
funds.