November 4, 2008.  On Election Day, Americans across the country will go to the polls before heading off to work, during lunch break, or after another day at the office.  Increasingly, however, thanks to early and absentee voting many people will have already voted; in 2004 perhaps 20 percent of the electorate had voted before Election Day.

DEMOCRACY IN ACTION photo.
November, 2, 2004--A long line of people waited to vote Tuesday morning at Ward 1, Precinct 25 in Washington, DC.

"Election Day"
"Election Day" has increasingly become a relative term.  The National Annenberg Election Survey reported that 20 percent of voters said they cast their ballots early in the 2004 general election.  According to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission's 2004 Election Day Survey 27 states conducted some forme of early voting, which it defined as "any voting that occured prior to November 2, 2004 for which there were no eligibility requirements."
 

Avoiding Another Florida
Despite passage of the Help America Vote Act of 2002 (HAVA) and significant investments in upgrading voting equipment around the country, concerns about the integrity of the electoral process remained when Election Day, November 2, 2004 dawned.  There were concerns about electronic voting systems that lacked a paper trail, ambiguity over provisional voting, and a possible shortage of poll workers.  Additionally in the last month of the campaign, both major parties made numerous allegations of fraud and intimidation.  On Election Day and in the days leading up to it, partisan and independent observers, federal observers, and international observers of varying stripes mobilized to ensure that voters' rights were protected and their intentions heard.  President Bush's plurality was large enough that the "margin of litigation" was not crossed, but had the election been closer there could have easily been another post-election fiasco.
 

Election Night: Unofficial Results, Exit Polls...Showtime
Election night coverage and the multi-page spreads in the newspaper the next morning are the culmination of months of preparation and planning.

One key component of election coverage is exit polls, which are based on surveys of voters in randomly selected precincts as they leave polling places.  Exit polls provide a window on the concerns of voters and useful information on variations in voting behavior by gender, race, age, education, income and other factors.  In 2000 exit polling had been done by entity called Voter News Service (VNS).  AP and the networks and formed VNS, then known as Voter Research and Surveys (VRS), following the 1988 campaign.  VNS and the networks came under considerable criticism2 for their performance on Election Night 2000 as they first called the election for George W. Bush and then retracted the call.  Then in November 2002 VNS's new and updated system failed to produce usable results.  In January 2003 the partners disbanded VNS.

The successor to VNS was the National Election Pool, a cooperative formed by ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, Cable News Network, Fox News and NBC News.  In 2004, a partnership of Mitofsky International and Edison Media Research [Mitofsky International-Warren Mitofsky; Edison Media Research-Joe Lenski] did exit polling for the National Election Pool.  There were 1,480 exit poll locations and results were obtained from 1,469 of them.  The 2004 exit polls were not without fault, however.  Results of early exit polls, although not formally reported, became known and appeared favorable to the Kerry campaign, raising false hopes among Democrats and unnecessary worries among Republicans.  Some analyses sought to tie the discrepancy to use of particular types of voting machines.  In a 77-page evaluation released in January 2005, the exit poll team attributed the "sizeable overstatement of the estimated percentage of the vote for John Kerry" in significant measure to "differential non-responses by Republican vs. Democrat voters."  However, a number of statisticians challenged the Edison/Mitofsky report.

A second important element of election night coverage is the collection, tabulation and distribution unofficial election night vote results for presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial races.  In 2000 this function was also fulfilled by VNS (in the past a separate entity called News Election Service did this work).  VNS worked with election officials in every county in the country to gather these results.  On election night, stringers and reporters in tens of thousands of precincts around the country called in reports to VNS, which then processed and transmitted the information.

For news organizations, when everything works, election night is as good as it gets, a chance to show what they can do.  Anchors man elaborate sets, correspondents around the country file reports, and, as the evening progresses, states are called one way or another and the map begins to fill in with red and blue.
 

Defeat...And Victory
If all goes smoothly, on election night vanquished candidate will call the winner to concede and then deliver his or her concession speech.  The victor delivers his speech to jubilant supporters.  That has not happened in the past two cycles as the 2000 campaign dragged on for weeks.  In 2004 The Kerry campaign delayed conceding the race on Tuesday night, placing faint hopes on provisional ballots in Ohio.   By Wednesday the outcome could no longer be denied; Senator Kerry called President Bush to concede and then delivered his concession speech.  Bush, re-elected with a record number of votes, delivered his victory speech to jubilant supporters.
 

The Morning After...What Does It Mean?
The days after the election are peak season for pundits as they assess, analyze, discuss and debate the meaning of the results.  Various interest groups offer their own post-election assessments, often using the opportunity to point to the impact their constituency had on the outcome or to launch some barbs at their opponents.  [The 2004 Morning After Page]
 

Election Day: Take 2...The Electoral College
As you will recall from high school, the president is not selected by direct popular vote, but by intermediaries known as electors.  The electoral system is outlined in the Twelfth Amendment to the Constitution, adopted in 1804 (this significantly modified the original provisions contained in Article II).  Each state has a number of electors equal to its number of congressmen and Senators.  The District of Columbia has three electors, bringing the total to 538.  Most states use a winner-take-all rule; all the state's electors go to the winner of the popular vote in the state.

Electors are generally party activists.  Some months before the election each party puts together a slate of electors, chosen by congressional district with the exception of the two at-large Senate slots.  If the party's presidential candidate wins the popular vote in the state on Election Day, its electors meet in the state capitol on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December 2008 (Dec. 15, 2008).  If not they stay home.

Accordingly in mid-December ceremonies at the state capitols and in the District of Columbia, electors meet and sign the certificate of vote--actually they sign several copies of the document so there are back-ups.  There are separate votes for president and for vice president.  Each state sends one copy of the certificate of vote to the Office of the President of the United States Senate.

In January 2009 in a special joint session of Congress these envelopes will be opened and tallied.  Normally this would be a pro forma exercise.  In 2004 things went a bit differently; certification of the state results proceeded alphabetically until the Ohio votes were announced.  At that point Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones (D-OH), supported by Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), announced a challenge.  Debate followed, but the election of President Bush and Vice President Cheney was finally and officially certified.


Voter Turnout in Recent Years
In 1996 voter turnout reached its nadir.  The election of 2000 showed, that each and every vote is critical.  2004 saw the highest turnout since 1968.

Voter Turnout in Recent Presidential Elections

Resources and Useful Links
Election Integrity
electionline.org
U.S. Election Assistance Commission

Election Day
Why Tuesday?
Seeks to move federal Election Day from the first Tuesday in November to the first Saturday and Sunday of the month.

Electoral College
Electoral College (National Archives site)

National Popular Vote
An innovative approach to address the shortcomings of the Electoral College system, National Popular Vote proposes "to introduce and pass bills in all 50 state legislatures that would award the states' electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote."   The "Agreement Among the States to Elect the President by National Popular Vote" would take effect when enough states have passed it so that the popular vote winner would get sufficient electoral votes to win.  (Example: SB2724 introduced in the Illinois General Assembly on Jan. 20, 2006).  The state-by-state effort launched in early 2006.  National Popular Vote president Barry Fadem states that the reform may not be implemented for the 2008 election but that he is "very confident that this will be in place by 2012."

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) Proposes Abolishing the Electoral College (Dec. 22, 2004)
Sen. Feinstein introduced S.J.Res. 11 on March 16, 2005.

Citizens for True Democracy (seeks abolition of Electoral College)

FairVote.  "Presidential Election Inequality: The Electoral College in the 21st Century." (Feb. 2006)
Presidential Elections Reform Program

General
National Election Studies  NES "Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior"
2000 edition of this page
1992 and 1996 Maps and Results
 
 
Copyright © 2006  Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action