A presidential election campaign follows a set of familiar steps, from the early maneuvering and testing-the-waters activities in the pre-campaign period to frenetic last-ditch efforts of the party nominees in the fall.  Each presidential campaign occurs in, and is shaped by, a unique historical context. 

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The Field of Play
The context, or playing field on which a campaign is fought, sets broad bounds within which the candidates and their organizations must operate.  Events, social and economic conditions, cultural tendencies, technology, and rules and laws governing the election process all combine to create a political landscape which may favor one or another of the candidates.

For example, the technologies a campaign can use to reach voters are constantly developing.  In the past the whistlestop tour may have been the best way to communicate with voters; nowadays the 30-second television spot is the preferred currency and the Internet is becoming increasingly important.  The number and type of news outlets, supplemented by bloggers, has exploded.  An Abraham Lincoln or a Theodore Roosevelt-type candidate might not be electable in such a communications environment.  To take another example, the conduct of federal elections is governed by rules set out in Title 11 of the Code of Federal Regulations (Federal Election Commission), state laws, and rules of the political parties.  These myriad rules have evolved over time and the net outcome is a system that seems more geared to lining the pockets of consultants than educating the voters.  It is long, expensive and often falls short in producing substantive discussion of issues.  The process for choosing the party nominees places a premium not on ideas or experience, but on the ability to raise money in the year before the election.  Thoughtful presidential prospects may choose to self-select out rather than enduring the grind.  Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich decried a lack of seriousnes in the political process during a "Lincoln at Cooper Union" dialogue held on Feb. 28, 2007.  "The process is decaying at a level that is bizarre, and it's a mutual synergistic decay between candidates, consultants and the news media," Gingrich said.¹

There are many such contextual factors.  The relative dearth of women in high elective office means that few women have been considered presidential timber.  In 2008 a woman, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, is one of the leading candidates, as are an African-American, Sen. Barack Obama and a Latino, Gov. Bill Richardson.  The two-party system has been a fixture of American politics, but increasingly voters are chosing to register as independents or non-affiliated.  In May 2006 Unity'08, the effort to elect a bipartisan ticket to the White House in 2008, started and former Senators Baker, Daschle, Dole, and Mitchell launched the Bipartisan Policy Center in March 2007.

The historical context in which a campaign is waged impacts its substance, pushing various domestic and foreign issues into greater or lesser prominence.

-In 1996, the Cold War had receded into people's memories, and the campaign was fought on domestic issues.  The debate over the Clinton administration's health care proposal, the Republicans' gain of control of the House in the 1994 mid-term elections, and the unprecedented shutdowns of the federal government all set the stage for the 1996 campaign.

-The event that most colored the political landscape in the 2000 cycle was the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal.  This sordid story dominated the news in the latter part of 1998, culminating in the U.S. Senate sitting as a Court of Impeachment in January 1999.  President Clinton survived, but the scandal set up a strong undercurrent which continued to resonate throughout the election cycle, creating a very awkward situation for Vice President Gore.

-The 2004 election in essence was about national security.  The terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 had burned into the national psyche.  Within a month anthrax letters spread further anxiety to the extent that people were afraid to open their mail.  Increased security led to a new set of realities including long lines at airports and unsightly barricades around some public buildings.  President George W. Bush's popularity soared with the successful prosecution of the war in Afghanistan; his job approval reached 92 percent in October 2001 and was still at 83 percent in late January 2002.  The focus shifted to Iraq, and by the summer months of 2002 there was much speculation in the press and political circles about a possible war to force a "regime change" in Iraq, and about what form such a war would take and when it would come.  On March 19, 2003, having failed to gain the backing of the U.N. Security Council, the United States, backed by a "coalition of the willing," launched a strike on a meeting of key leaders in Baghdad, thereby beginning the war with Iraq.  Democrats selected Sen. John Kerry as their nominee in significant part because he was a Vietnam veteran and was thus seen as someone who could speak with authority on national security.

2008
The 2006 mid-term elections set the stage for 2008.  The messy situation in Iraq, Bush's sagging job approval ratings and perhaps some fatigue after six years of his administration, economic unease, high gas prices, and a few scandals in the mix caused Republicans to lose control of both the House and the Senate.  The dynamics of the 2008 campaign will be decidedly different with Speaker Nancy Pelosi in place than had Speaker Dennis Hastert retained the gavel.

In "The Keys to the White House" Allan J. Lichtman, professor of history at The American University in Washington, D.C., identifies thirteen factors ("keys") which he argues determine whether the incumbent party will win or lose the White House.  The balance of seats in the House of Representatives is one of those factors; others include whether there is a contest for the incumbent party nomination, real per capita economic growth, and whether there has been a major military or foreign-policy success.

Iraq and the "war on terror" will likely be a significant issues in 2008, but a number of social and economic issues could come to the fore.  America continues to run up large trade deficits month after month.  The loss of manufacturing jobs is a particular concern as is the low household saving rate and retirement security.  Health care costs continue to spiral.  Difficult choices on Social Security and Medicare loom; the Congressional Budget Office projects that federal spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will double by 2030. (2).  Sizable federal budget deficits have produced an $8.8 trillion public debt.  Hurricane Katrina revealed serious deficiencies in government response.  Illegal immigration is an emotional issue.  Former Vice President Al Gore has done much to put the issue global warming in play.  Former Speaker Gingrich, during the Feb. 2007 "Lincoln at Cooper Union" dialogue stated, "I believe this country today faces more parallel challenges simultaneously than at any time since the 1850s."  "And," he added, "I believe there is a grave danger that our political system will not be capable of solving these problems before they take our society apart in ways that are very destructive."  Already there is the notion that America has become a polarized nation, divided into "red" and "blue."  This polarization would appear to create an opening for a candidate who makes the argument that he or she can transcend partisan politics and bring the country together.

Notes
More from Gingrich: "...we live in an age of webcasts, which we're doing tonight, we live in an age of television, 24-hour radio, dramatic ability to reach the country immediately, and the campaigns instead of getting shorter have gotten longer.  And there's a practical reason.  They're consultant full-employment processes.  The first delegates are filed at the end of November and chosen in January and February.  There's no reason you have to be out doing all this junk, except candidates turn to consultants who say hire me now.  To hire me now you have to raise money, to raise money you have to hire a finance person, now you have to pay both me and the finance person so you better spend all your time going out and raising money, which is a totally banal process, the end of which means you have candidates who are totally exhausted, have no thoughts, but know an awful lot of rich people well."

General
2006 Statistical Abstract of the United States (U.S. Census Bureau)
Economic Briefing Room (U.S. Census Bureau)
Economy at a Glance (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Overview of the Economy (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Consumer Confidence Index (The Conference Board, Inc.)
National Debt, Interest on the National Debt (Bureau of Public Debt--U.S. Dept. of the Treasury)
U.S. Census Bureau Population Clock
"Fact Sheet on the True Size of Government" (The Brookings Institution-2003)

Other
C-SPAN's American Presidents: Life Portraits
Why Not A Woman?
Allan J. Lichtman  (2004 article on The Keys to the White House)  (brief June 2006 interview)
 
 

Copyright © 2006, 2007  Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action